XRP's Path to $1.90: A Strategic Pre-Runup Setup

XRP, Ripple's flagship asset, has long been a focal point for traders and investors navigating the volatile crypto landscape. As the token approaches a critical retest of the $1.90 level-a price floor that has historically acted as both a psychological barrier and a technical fulcrum-market participants are scrutinizing whether this juncture could serve as a strategic entry point ahead of a potential breakout. Drawing from technical analysis, on-chain behavior, and the evolving "great escape" narrative, this article explores how XRP's retest of $1.90 may signal a prelude to a significant upward move.

Technical Analysis: A Convergence of Patterns

XRP's price action in 2025 has been shaped by a complex interplay of chart patterns and key resistance levels. The token recently surged from $1.90 to $3.10, forming a rising wedge pattern-a structure typically associated with bearish outcomes. However, the breakout above this wedge was accompanied by strong trading volume, suggesting bullish momentum. Technical analysts project potential targets based on Fibonacci extensions and flag patterns. For instance, a confirmed breakout above $3.60 resistance could push XRP toward $6.19, with intermediate targets at $4.20, $4.41, and $5.09. The flag pattern further reinforces this optimism, with a target of $5.25.

A critical technical setup lies in the ABC corrective structure, where the $1.63 level acts as a pivotal resistance. A breakout above this level could invalidate the correction and signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a breakdown below $1.30–$1.27 would indicate deeper retracement. Meanwhile, the descending channel on the 60-minute chart highlights structural weakness, with failed attempts to break above $2.05. Traders are closely monitoring the $2.77–$2.80 support zone, as its stability or failure will likely dictate near-term price direction.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Institutional Demand

On-chain data reveals a nuanced picture of XRP's positioning. Short-term holders have been accumulating the asset, despite flat new user growth, indicating traders are positioning for near-term gains. Whale activity has also intensified, with nearly $928 million in accumulation during recent dips. This suggests that institutional and smart money players remain bullish on XRP's long-term potential.

Institutional demand has further solidified XRP's fundamentals. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have attracted $906 million in net inflows since their launch, while expanded custody solutions and structured investment products have stabilized liquidity. Declining exchange reserves-a sign of reduced sell-side pressure-add to the positive on-chain narrative. Elevated transaction counts and settlement activity also underscore XRP's utility in real-world corridors, such as cross-border payments.

Market Sentiment and the "Great Escape" Narrative

Market sentiment for XRP has oscillated between bearish extremes and cautious optimism. Social sentiment readings have entered the "fear zone", historically signaling potential short-term rebounds. However, this divergence between bearish sentiment and resilient on-chain activity has created a state of anticipation, with traders awaiting a technical catalyst to determine the next trajectory.

The "great escape" narrative-rooted in XRP's ability to break free from prolonged consolidation-has gained traction as a framework for understanding its price action. This narrative is supported by whale accumulation patterns and institutional flows, which suggest that major investors are positioning for a reversal. For example, the number of mega whale wallets has decreased by 20% over the past two months, while remaining whales hold approximately 48 billion tokens, signaling long-term confidence.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

The retest of $1.90 presents a compelling entry point for investors. Historically, this level has acted as a critical support, and its current positioning within a long-term declining channel bounded by the 100- and 200-day moving averages makes it a strategic focal point. A decisive break above $2.10–$2.15 could target $2.20–$2.25, offering a potential setup for further gains.

However, risks remain. If XRP fails to reclaim $2.035, it could retest $2.020–$2.025, with the psychological support at $2.00 becoming a critical line. Traders should also monitor the $2.95–$3.00 resistance zone, as a breakout here would confirm a bullish shift.

Conclusion: A Pre-Runup Setup

XRP's retest of $1.90 is more than a technical milestone-it is a convergence of on-chain strength, institutional demand, and a narrative of potential breakout. While the path forward is not without risks, the alignment of whale accumulation, ETF inflows, and key resistance levels suggests that this juncture could serve as a prelude to a significant upward move. For investors with a medium-term horizon, strategic accumulation near $1.90, coupled with disciplined risk management, may position them to capitalize on the next phase of XRP's journey.