XRP's Oversold Flow: RSI, Volume, and the Path to a Bottom

The technical picture for XRP is flashing extreme oversold signals. The daily RSI for this token hit the lowest level on record yesterday, a stark indicator of exhausted selling pressure. This comes as the price trades significantly below all major moving averages, sitting well below the MA-20 at $1.7657, the MA-50 at $1.9094, and the MA-200 at $2.4656. This positioning confirms a persistent bearish trend across all timeframes.

This oversold condition is unfolding against a backdrop of broader market weakness and fading liquidity. A tense silence has settled over the crypto market, replacing earlier optimism with sharp swings and uncertainty. Bitcoin's pullbacks and cautious macroeconomic sentiment have combined to reduce overall liquidity, causing altcoins like XRP to experience sharper drawdowns. The result is a fragile environment where rebounds are happening but on weak volume, showing investors aren't fully back in.

The setup suggests XRP may be entering a capitulation phase, a late-cycle moment where persistent selling pressure exhausts itself. While the technicals are oversold, the path to a bottom remains uncertain. The market is in a psychologically extreme period where bearish narratives dominate, but historically, such phases can mark the foundation for a long-term bottom. The key will be whether selling pressure now runs out.

Institutional Flow vs. Retail Sentiment

The flow picture shows a clear split. While retail sentiment is in a state of tense silence, institutional activity reveals a more resilient demand. Spot ETFs report steady net inflows, a direct channel for institutional capital that suggests underlying demand is not drying up despite the price drop institutional demand for XRP remains strong as spot ETFs report steady net inflows. This steady inflow is a key counter-narrative to the prevailing fear.

That demand is also visible in the trading volume. On-chain metrics indicate robust activity, with nearly $300 million in daily volume on a major exchange alone trading volume remaining robust at nearly $300 million on Binance alone. This level of volume, sustained even during consolidation, points to active institutional participation and liquidity provision, not a market in complete capitulation.

Catalysts and Key Levels to Watch

The immediate test is a retest of the $1.55 level. This price is a critical threshold; a break below could signal deeper capitulation and extend the downtrend. The daily RSI hitting a record low confirms the market is in an extreme oversold state, but that exhaustion must now translate into a sustained price bounce. Without a decisive move above $1.55, the path of least resistance remains down.

The immediate technical battleground is defined by tight support and resistance zones. The key support area is a narrow band between $1.3400 and $1.3600. A failure to hold here would open the door to a more severe drop. On the upside, resistance is concentrated between $1.6565 and $1.67, with the Ichimoku Kijun line at $1.6565 acting as a dynamic ceiling. The price must clear this zone to signal a shift in momentum.

A potential positive catalyst looms from regulatory developments. Ripple has secured new EU regulatory approvals, expanding its compliance footprint. This could provide a tailwind for institutional adoption and demand, offering a fundamental counterweight to technical weakness. While the market is currently in a tense silence, these approvals represent a tangible event that could help stabilize sentiment and support the price from these critical levels.