XRP Outflows Hit a 5-Month High-Can Less Exchange Supply Break It Above $1?

XRP exchange outflows are broadening while price remains near $1

The core setup is straightforward: XRP's exchange supply is shrinking while price is still trading in a narrow $1 range.

Coinbase and early-August wallet data point to stronger outflows

Coinbase posted its strongest withdrawal-heavy flow since mid-February, with a -13,000 seven-day net transaction count on July 15. In early August, Coinbase also recorded -10,900 net depositing/withdrawing wallets, its weakest wallet reading on record. Separate data also showed withdrawals are now exceeding deposits across Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit, suggesting the shift was not limited to one venue.

Price has not fully reflected the tightening supply

That is the tension. One data set shows XRP trading around $1.10, while another shows it still in the $1.05 to $1.08 range with sellers in control. In other words, fewer tokens appear to be leaving exchanges, but buyers have not yet stepped in strongly enough to push a clean rerating.

Why falling exchange supply matters for XRP

Exchange reserves show less liquid inventory

When wallets move away from exchanges, it matters because Exchange reserve is one of the most direct signals of what is actually available to trade. The latest reading shows -13,026 total wallets over the past week, with Coinbase, Binance, and Crypto.com all posting negative activity. That points to less liquid inventory sitting where marginal sellers can usually access it.

Shrinking exchange supply does not guarantee upside, but it can make a sharp move more likely if buying improves. A thinner order book needs less demand to move price higher.

The demand side is still the missing piece

Recent whale-flow data shows 26% of withdrawals on Coinbase were XRP, while roughly 228 million XRP left Binance and Upbit. That can help tighten available sell-side liquidity, but it is not the same as sustained spot demand.

The market still needs buyers to become more aggressive. Without that, lower exchange supply may only slow selling pressure rather than trigger a breakout.

What would confirm the thesis, and what would break it

The bear case is that deposits have preceded sharp selloffs before

Before the current withdrawal trend, large increases in deposits were seen in July and again in October 2025, and both times they were followed by declines of more than 65%. If exchange inflows return, the market could stop viewing XRP as supply-tight and start viewing it as fresh inventory available for distribution.

Price still needs to reclaim key levels

There is also no automatic upside from withdrawals alone. Even with Binance's balance at 2.6 billion XRP and still falling from above 3.1 billion, the demand picture remains mixed. The 90-day Spot Taker CVD has returned to neutral after briefly favoring buyers, so aggressive spot demand has not clearly reasserted control.

The levels that matter most

XRP remains below the Supertrend level at $1.2638, making $1.26 to $1.33 the first major upside checkpoint. Bulls likely need to reclaim $1.16 and $1.21 first; otherwise, rallies may keep running into existing sell liquidity.

On the downside, XRP is already under pressure in the $1.05 to $1.08 range, with immediate support near $1.10. A daily close below that area would expose $1.00 and weaken the squeeze case.

What to watch next

The next signal to watch is whether price starts to respond to the flow data. If outflows continue and buyers begin pushing XRP through nearby resistance, the tightening-supply narrative gains credibility. If deposits return or price slips back toward $1.00, the setup loses its edge quickly.