XRP News Today: XRP's Tenuous Rebound vs. Bearish Crossovers and 13% Drop Risk

The XRP price has shown a modest rebound in recent days, but analysts warn that the asset's structure remains fragile, with key technical indicators and market dynamics pointing to a potential 13% decline. Despite a 2.3% gain over the past 24 hours, XRP continues to trade below critical moving averages, and a bearish crossover looms as a major risk.

Technical analysis highlights the tension between short-term momentum and entrenched bearish pressures. On-Balance Volume (OBV), a gauge of buying and selling pressure, has recently crossed above a key trend line, signaling renewed buyer interest. However, this move is tenuous. A prior attempt to break above the same level on November 18 failed, triggering a 19% drop in the following days. Additionally, XRP faces a dense supply zone between $2.16 and $2.17, where approximately 1.36 billion tokens-worth $2.86 billion-are held by investors near breakeven. These holders are likely to offload coins during small recoveries, potentially stifling the rally.

The risk of a bearish crossover has intensified as the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) threatens to dip below the 200-day EMA. This "death cross" pattern, which emphasizes recent price action more than a simple moving average, could amplify downward momentum. If completed, the crossover could drive XRP toward $1.81, a 13% drop from current levels.

Compounding these concerns, a prominent trader has opened a $27 million short position on XRP with 20x leverage, according to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain. The trader has also bet against Bitcoin and Zcoin (ZEC) with 40x and 10x leverage, respectively. This aggressive positioning reflects growing pessimism, particularly as whale activity suggests further selling pressure. Santiment data reveals that large holders dumped 200 million XRP tokens over 48 hours, while Glassnode noted that 41.5% of XRP's supply is now trading at a loss-the lowest level since November 2024 according to crypto analysts.

Crypto analysts have identified Fibonacci retracement levels as key price targets. CasiTrades, a macro analyst, argues that XRP is likely to test the 0.5 Fibonacci support at $2.03, with a potential drop to the 0.618 level at $1.65 if the $2.41 resistance fails. While a decline to $1.65 would not necessarily signal a bear market, it could set the stage for a powerful Wave 3 rally to new all-time highs, according to Elliott Wave theory.

The market's fragility is further underscored by institutional dynamics. Despite the launch of Canary Capital's XRP ETF and pending regulatory approvals for additional funds, XRP has struggled to gain traction. Analysts like Ali Martinez caution that the token could fall below the psychological $2 level if support at $2.15 breaks.

For now, the fate of XRP hinges on whether buyers can push the price above $2.25, which would weaken the bearish crossover setup and reduce the risk of a 13% decline. Until then, the interplay of technical indicators, leveraged shorts, and whale behavior keeps the asset in a precarious position.