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XRP's price structure suggests a potential rally to the $5 level if key support levels hold, amid growing adoption metrics and pending regulatory developments. On the technical front, XRP has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level at $2.74, aligning with the expected wave (4) support, reinforcing a bullish continuation pattern [1]. Analysts highlight that shallow corrections above recent lows indicate the likelihood of a wave (5) continuation, with a projected move toward the $5 level and beyond [1]. However, an alternative bearish scenario suggests a deeper correction toward the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement levels, near $2.46 and $2.12 [1]. The bullish wave structure remains valid as long as XRP remains above current local lows.
Network activity also indicates strong fundamentals. The XRP Ledger has recorded a record 7.3 million addresses, reflecting growing user adoption and network expansion [2]. Analysts noted that the growth trend accelerated after September 2024, coinciding with XRP’s price breakout above key resistance levels [2]. With XRP currently trading near $2.9, the continued rise in wallet activity suggests increasing user engagement and broader ecosystem adoption [2]. Market observers suggest that the expanding network could underpin long-term price strength, reinforcing the bullish technical outlook.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet withdrawn its appeal in the Ripple case and is expected to submit an update to the appellate court by August 15, 2025 [3]. This date serves as a soft deadline for the SEC to either proceed with the appeal, request an extension, or withdraw [3]. The lack of formal communication has created uncertainty among XRP holders, with market participants anticipating how the decision might affect Ripple's operations in the U.S. [3]. Traders remain cautious as the outcome could influence both regulatory sentiment and market dynamics.
The convergence of technical strength, growing network activity, and pending legal clarity positions XRP at a pivotal moment. If the bullish wave structure holds and the SEC takes no further action, XRP could benefit from renewed buying interest and favorable market conditions.
Source: [1] XRP Eyes $5 Rally as Ledger Hits 7.
, SEC Decision Looms(https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6890a68d0fd8ee5bbb70c73d/)
[2] XRP Eyes $5 Rally as Ledger Hits 7.3M, SEC Decision Looms
[3] XRP Eyes $5 Rally as Ledger Hits 7.3M, SEC Decision Looms

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