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XRP is showing signs of cooling after a strong July rally, with the token trading at $2.99 as of August 4, 2025, down 17% from its July 18 all-time high of $3.65. This decline is accompanied by the formation of a bearish MVRV death cross and a notable drop in trading volume, signaling potential for further price correction and a period of consolidation [1]. The MVRV ratio—a key on-chain indicator—has crossed below its long-term average, suggesting that many holders are now in loss territory, which could trigger increased selling pressure [2].
Trading volume for XRP has decreased by over 23% to $4.83 billion, reflecting reduced spot market activity. Derivatives open interest rose slightly by 2%, while derivatives volume fell 34%, indicating a cautious stance among traders who appear to be holding positions rather than engaging in active trading [3]. This divergence between spot and derivatives activity highlights uncertainty and a wait-and-see approach in the market.
From a technical perspective, XRP is currently trading just below key short-term moving averages, with both the 10-day and 20-day EMAs at $3.02 and $3.01, respectively, signaling bearish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 51.29, remaining neutral, while the Stochastic RSI nearing 14 suggests the token may be entering an oversold condition, potentially opening the door for a short-term bounce. However, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain at $2.79 and $2.34, respectively, indicating that the broader trend remains positive [4].
Key resistance for XRP is currently around $3.20, a level it must reclaim to resume upward momentum. Meanwhile, critical support levels are positioned at $2.95 and $2.75. A break below $2.75 could lead to further testing of the $2.50 zone. Analysts are closely watching these levels to determine the next directional move for the asset [5].
Market experts highlight the MVRV death cross as a significant bearish signal, reinforcing the idea that XRP is in a consolidation phase with potential for short-term volatility. The current technical and volume trends suggest a cautious outlook, with traders advised to monitor key support and resistance levels for clues on the next trend [6]. Despite a 6.2% increase over the past 24 hours, XRP remains down 7% for the week, reflecting ongoing short-term uncertainty [7].
Analysts, including Ali Martinez, have noted the bearish implications of the MVRV death cross, emphasizing the likelihood of increased selling pressure and deeper corrections. The on-chain signal, combined with declining volume and mixed derivatives sentiment, points to a potentially volatile period ahead [8].
In summary, XRP’s recent pullback and bearish on-chain indicators suggest a period of cautious consolidation. While short-term technical conditions may allow for a bounce, the formation of the MVRV death cross and declining volume point to a higher probability of further correction. Investors are advised to closely monitor key price levels as the market navigates this phase of uncertainty.
Source: [1]https://en.coinotag.com/xrp-shows-signs-of-cooling-after-july-rally-amid-mvrv-death-cross-and-volume-decline/

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