XRP News Today: XRP Realistic Supply Only 12-15% of Total Minted Amount

Software engineer Vincent Van Code recently published a detailed analysis on Twitter, addressing a common misconception about the total supply of XRP. While XRP is often cited as having a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, Van Code emphasizes that this figure does not accurately reflect the amount available for business operations such as payments, cross-border settlements, or liquidity provision.

Van Code's analysis systematically reviews various categories of XRP holdings and exclusions to provide a more accurate estimate of the XRP realistically available for real-world financial applications. He identifies several constraints that significantly reduce the actual liquid supply from the total minted amount.

One of the key factors Van Code highlights is Ripple’s escrow management, which currently holds approximately 40 billion XRP. These tokens are released in fixed increments of 1 billion XRP per month, but most of the released XRP is typically returned to escrow. Van Code estimates that, on average, about 800 million XRP is re-escrowed monthly. Despite the predictable schedule of escrow releases, he maintains that this XRP is not practically liquid and therefore unsuitable for immediate use in fast-moving markets or real-time liquidity provisioning.

Another significant factor is the volume of XRP that may be permanently inaccessible. Van Code suggests that between 5 and 8 billion XRP is likely lost due to forgotten private keys, abandoned wallets, and early-user inaccessibility. This segment, while not officially removed from the circulating supply, no longer plays an active role in the ecosystem.

Van Code also examines the large amount of XRP held by institutions and early stakeholders, including Ripple founders, exchanges, and venture capital firms. These wallets, estimated to hold between 20 and 25 billion XRP, are characterized by low transaction activity. Many of these holders treat their XRP similarly to how investors treat long-term stores of value, preferring to hold rather than engage in frequent trading or liquidity services. He categorizes these as effectively soft-locked due to behavioral patterns.

Additionally, Van Code identifies an additional 6 to 8 billion XRP held by Ripple outside the formal escrow structure. These holdings are reportedly used for strategic purposes such as acquisitions, incentives, or partnerships. Because these tokens are not consistently on the market, they are also excluded from his estimate of liquid supply.

Van Code then addresses emerging trends such as decentralized finance on the XRP Ledger. With the recent introduction of the XRPL Automated Market Maker (AMM), XRP is beginning to be locked in liquidity pools. While this segment is still developing, Van Code notes that DeFi mechanisms represent another constraining factor on accessible supply.

Taking all these segments into account, Van Code concludes that only approximately 12 to 15 billion XRP is realistically available for open market use and business-related liquidity. This equates to just 12–15% of the full 100 billion XRP supply. He refers to this as the “estimated liquid supply,” which excludes escrowed, lost, institutional, and strategic holdings.

Van Code concludes his analysis by pointing to potential market implications. He argues that if usage of XRP continues to expand through mechanisms such as On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) bridges, and tokenized asset transactions, then the already limited liquid supply may be increasingly insufficient to meet demand. In his assessment, as more XRP is locked away or treated as a long-term asset, supply constraints could exert upward pressure on the asset’s price.

This analysis offers a distinct perspective on XRP’s supply dynamics. It may inform considerations for investors, enterprises, and liquidity providers evaluating the utility and valuation of the token within the broader digital asset economy.