XRP's price trajectory has sparked divergent signals in recent weeks, with conflicting on-chain metrics and technical patterns fueling debate over its near-term prospects. After stabilizing at $2.55 following a broader crypto market selloff, XRP's one-year trend remains up over 350%, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. However, while one key metric-the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)-flashes a rare bullish signal, another shows long-term holders retrenching, creating uncertainty about the timing of a potential 35% rally.
The SOPR, which measures whether investors are selling at a profit or loss, has dropped to 0.95, its lowest level in six months. A reading below 1 indicates most holders are selling at a loss, often signaling exhaustion among sellers before a reversal. Historical data shows a similar SOPR dip to 0.92 in April 2025 preceded a 35% rebound from $1.90 to $2.58 within a month. If the pattern repeats,
could target $3.10–$3.35, assuming buyers regain control after the recent selloff [1].Yet, long-term holders-often a stabilizing force during volatility-are reducing their positions. Glassnode's Hodler Net Position Change data reveals a 27% decline in accumulation since early October, with long-term wallets adding just 119.16 million XRP by October 12, down from 163.68 million earlier in the month. This hesitancy suggests the rebound may take longer to gain momentum, as older investors typically provide liquidity during volatile phases [1].
Technical analysis adds further nuance. XRP remains within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, with resistance at $2.72 and support at $2.30. A breakout above $2.72 could validate renewed buying strength and target $3.10–$3.66, aligning with SOPR's historical projections. However, failure to hold above $2.30 risks invalidating the bullish structure and pushing the price lower [1].
Regulatory developments also play a role. A pending XRP ETF filing by GraniteShares has raised hopes for institutional inflows, but delays due to the U.S. government shutdown have clouded timelines. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could prolong consolidation below $3.00, where XRP has faced repeated rejection . Meanwhile, retail-driven inflows-evidenced by a 490% surge in XRP address activity since 2022-have begun to wane, signaling potential fragility in speculative demand [2].
The market's mixed signals highlight a tug-of-war between short-term optimism and long-term caution. While SOPR and technical patterns hint at a potential rally, weak accumulation by long-term holders and regulatory delays underscore risks of a prolonged consolidation phase. Traders will need to monitor key levels: a sustained break above $3.00 could reignite bullish momentum, while a drop below $2.72 may signal further downside.
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