XRP News Today: XRP's Price Surge Hinges on SEC's ETF Decisions This October

XRP has surged past critical support at $2.50, rebounding to $2.90 and signaling renewed bullish momentum amid improving on-chain activity and favorable technical indicators. The asset has been consolidating within a descending channel, with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) flipping from negative to positive, indicating that buying pressure is overtaking selling pressure. This shift, combined with higher lows in recent weeks, suggests XRP may be poised for a breakout. Analysts note that holding above $2.78 support is critical for bulls to maintain upward momentum, with a key target at $3.14 if the $2.98 resistance level is breached .

The fourth quarter has historically been a strong period for XRP, with past Q4 rallies in 2023 and 2024 delivering gains of 20% and 240%, respectively. However, 2024 saw a 16.70% decline in October, highlighting the importance of maintaining positive sentiment. Current on-chain data, including a drop in the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio to 108.56, suggests XRP is undervalued relative to its transaction volume. A lower NVT historically correlates with stronger price performance, reinforcing the case for further gains as October approaches .

A major catalyst for XRP this month is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decisions on eight spot XRP ETF applications, scheduled between October 18 and 25. Approvals could unlock billions in institutional inflows, mirroring the impact seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Analysts estimate that even modest inflows of $3–5 billion in the first year could double XRP's market cap, potentially pushing the price toward $5 or beyond. This regulatory clarity, coupled with Ripple's ongoing legal resolution with the SEC, positions XRP for a significant price correction if approvals materialize .

Technically, XRP faces immediate resistance at $2.98 and $3.30. A breakout above $3.30 could pave the way for a rally toward $3.66 by October's end, with the possibility of extending gains to $5 in a sustained bull run. Conversely, a failure to hold above $2.78 could trigger a pullback to $2.43, undermining the bullish setup. The descending triangle pattern, which has been in play since July, mirrors the structure of previous breakout rallies, with a 35% target at $4 if the channel is decisively breached .

Historical context adds nuance to the outlook. While Q4 2024 was bearish, earlier years saw XRP surge by up to 240% during the same period. The current environment, however, may differ due to XRP's growing institutional adoption and the potential for ETF listings to normalize its use in cross-border payments. Analysts caution that macroeconomic factors, such as a U.S. government shutdown or shifts in Fed policy, could introduce short-term volatility, but the long-term trajectory remains dependent on regulatory progress and sustained buying pressure .

[1] XRP Price Set for October Breakout - Could Q4 Send It ... (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/xrp-october-price-analysis-2025/)

[2] Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction For ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp-price-prediction-for-october-2025/)

[3] XRP price: Why October will be the most bullish month ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-price-why-october-will-be-most-bullish-2025)

[4] XRP Price Prediction: How XRP Could React After OCT ... (https://coingape.com/markets/how-could-xrp-price-react-after-october-2025-sec-etf-decisions/)