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XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with
, has been maintaining a steady price around $2.29, following a slow breakout from a multi-week pennant pattern. This stability comes amidst significant behind-the-scenes developments and mixed signals from on-chain activity, fueling speculation about a potential new all-time high. However, the path to such a milestone is fraught with uncertainties, even with whales actively accumulating the token.One of the key indicators of renewed interest in XRP is the significant withdrawal of over 780,000 XRP from
on July 5. This large-scale movement suggests that whales are once again showing interest in the cryptocurrency. Additionally, Ripple's recent efforts to secure a U.S. banking license and the buzz surrounding a potential ETF are contributing to the speculative environment. These developments are likely attracting deep-pocketed buyers who see long-term potential in XRP.Despite the bullish sentiment, there are underlying weaknesses that could impact XRP's price trajectory. The funding rate for XRP has turned strongly positive, indicating that traders are heavily betting on the price going up and are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. While this suggests high confidence, it also poses a risk. Elevated funding rates often mean the market is overcrowded with bullish trades, and if the price does not move up fast enough, many traders could be forced out, leading to a sharp drop.
Another red flag is the cooling off of wallet activity since the beginning of July. In June, XRP's active address count spiked multiple times, correlating with short-term price gains. However, the recent decline in wallet activity, despite the price continuing to climb, suggests that the rally might be driven by a small group of whales rather than broader retail participation. For any rally to be sustainable, broader participation is crucial. If the number of active wallets does not pick back up soon, XRP's price could lose momentum quickly.
Exchange netflows further confirm the accumulation pattern by whales. Over the past three months, more XRP has been flowing out of exchanges than in, especially during dips. This trend is a classic sign of large players parking tokens in cold wallets, indicating that they are not preparing to sell but rather holding for potential future gains. Historically, such accumulation has preceded major price runs, especially when paired with steady price action and low funding spikes.
Technically, XRP's price has broken out of its symmetrical pennant, clearing the $2.20 region and testing the $2.35 resistance. This move is significant as it aligns with a horizontal ceiling that has capped past rallies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering just under 55, indicating neutral territory. While it is not overbought, it also does not signal strong momentum. If XRP clears $2.35 and holds it as support, the next resistance levels to watch are $2.48, $2.65, and the psychologically significant $2.78–$3 range. However, crossing $3 would be necessary for traders to start considering all-time high levels.
On the downside, any sharp rejection followed by a break under $2.08 would invalidate the bullish breakout. Below that, $2.00 and $1.85 could come into play quickly. The current situation suggests that while there is potential for XRP to reach new highs, the market is also at risk of a pullback if the bullish momentum does not sustain. The interplay between whale activity, regulatory developments, and technical indicators will continue to shape XRP's price trajectory in the coming weeks.

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