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XRP staged a significant recovery following a 41% intraday decline in late October 2025, rebounding to close above $2.47 amid renewed institutional activity. The token's price swung from $2.77 to $1.64 within a 24-hour period, driven by macroeconomic deleveraging and heavy futures liquidations triggered by U.S.-China tariff announcements. Over $150 million in
futures were liquidated during the volatility, with derivatives data showing a 6.3% decline in open interest and a 15:1 ratio of long to short liquidations. Analysts attributed the rebound to institutional buyers rebuilding exposure in the $2.34–$2.45 range, stabilizing the asset after panic selling [1].Technical analysis highlighted critical support and resistance levels, with $2.47–$2.48 acting as short-term support and $3.05 as a key breakout threshold. Intraday volume surged to 817 million, nearly triple the 30-day average, signaling capitulation-grade turnover. Momentum indicators showed early reversal bias, with RSI recovering from oversold territory and MACD flipping toward zero. A bullish recovery channel was forming, though analysts cautioned that sustained momentum above $3.05 would be needed to confirm a structural recovery [1].

Institutional demand and macroeconomic factors dominated the October narrative. The pending approval of spot XRP ETFs by the SEC in mid-October became a focal point, with applications from Grayscale, 21Shares, and other firms potentially unlocking billions in institutional capital. Pro-Ripple lawyer Bill Morgan emphasized the significance of leveraged XRP ETFs, comparing the development to
and Ethereum's institutional adoption. "Leveraged ETFs are the next logical step," Morgan stated, noting their potential to amplify demand and liquidity [2].Ripple's technical upgrades to the XRP Ledger (XRPL) also gained attention. The introduction of Token Escrow and Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs) expanded the ledger's utility beyond XRP, enabling compliance-ready settlement for tokenized assets. Additionally, the upcoming EVM sidechain was positioned to attract
developers, offering Ethereum-compatible smart contracts and positioning XRP as gas for on-chain transactions. These upgrades, coupled with partnerships with financial institutions like DBS Bank and Franklin Templeton, were seen as catalysts for XRP's long-term adoption .Price projections for late 2025 and early 2026 varied. A base case scenario projected XRP reaching $3.05–$3.65 by year-end 2025, contingent on ETF approvals and sustained institutional inflows. Bullish forecasts extended to $4–$5 by early 2026, while bearish scenarios warned of a potential pullback to $2.20–$2.50 if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory delays emerged [2]. October's historical "Uptober" effect-historically favorable for cryptocurrencies-was cited as a potential tailwind, with Bitcoin's seasonal performance often lifting altcoins [2].
Legal clarity remained a critical factor. Ripple's ongoing SEC lawsuit, which determined whether XRP would be classified as a security, continued to influence market sentiment. A favorable ruling could accelerate ETF approvals and institutional adoption, while a delay or adverse decision might trigger short-term volatility .
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