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XRP remains under significant bearish pressure as the broader cryptocurrency market continues to decline. On August 16, the asset fell 7% within 15 minutes, triggering over $420 million in liquidations and signaling a shift in trader sentiment [1]. The token has since traded below the key psychological support level of $3, a threshold that has historically acted as a turning point for both bullish and bearish trends.
Technical analysis highlights the importance of reclaiming this level. A failure to close above $3.30 could expose
to a sharp correction, potentially dragging the price down to $2.60 or even $2 [5]. This warning comes as the asset has already fallen below $3 in early August, with traders now watching the $2.55–$2.62 range as the next critical support zone [4].The bearish momentum is further reinforced by the XRP spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator, which shows a dominance of sell orders in the order book over the past 90 days. This pattern suggests that traders are actively taking profits and shifting to a more cautious stance, with sellers maintaining control and potentially pushing the price lower [1]. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) has declined from 61 to 45 over the past week, indicating that bullish momentum has waned [1].
Historical price patterns also support the bearish outlook. The last time XRP closed below $3 with high volume was in January, which preceded a 50% drop to $1.61 by April [1]. A similar drawdown could occur if the asset fails to stabilize above the 50-day simple moving average at $2.94 or the local low of $2.72. If these levels fall, the next target is the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $2.60 and $2.45, respectively [1].
Despite these challenges, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects for XRP. Community expert Zach Rector has predicted that the token could reach $4 by the second quarter of 2026 [6]. However, such projections remain speculative and do not reflect current market conditions, which are characterized by tight price ranges and weak on-chain demand.
The current price environment also highlights that 94% of XRP holders are in profit at current levels, a statistic often associated with price tops [8]. This has led to speculation that the market is in a "belief–denial" phase, where bullish expectations are beginning to fade and bearish forces are gaining control [8].
Looking ahead, the critical focus for XRP bulls is a quick retest and hold of the $3.30 level. A successful defense could provide a short-term recovery path toward $5, supported by whale accumulation patterns and favorable price action [3]. However, if bears continue their dominance, the path to $2 becomes increasingly likely, marking a potentially sharp decline for the token.
As the broader market remains in a downturn, XRP's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment. Traders are advised to closely monitor key support levels and volume patterns as the price continues to test the resilience of its technical and psychological barriers [1][4][5][7].
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Source:
[1] XRP Price Prediction: Recovery Stalls as Bulls Fight To Hold $3 Key Support - [https://coincentral.com/xrp-xrp-price-prediction-recovery-stalls-as-bulls-fight-to-hold-3-key-support/](https://coincentral.com/xrp-xrp-price-prediction-recovery-stalls-as-bulls-fight-to-hold-3-key-support/)
[4] XRP Price Breaks Below $3: Is $2 the Next Stop? - [https://thetradable.com/crypto/xrp-price-breaks-below-3-is-2-the-next-stop-ig--a](https://thetradable.com/crypto/xrp-price-breaks-below-3-is-2-the-next-stop-ig--a)
[5] XRP Must Recapture This Level To Avoid A Sharp Correction - [https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47177604/xrp-needs-to-recapture-3-30-to-avoid-a-sharp-correction-says-analyst-as-crypto-joins-market-slump](https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47177604/xrp-needs-to-recapture-3-30-to-avoid-a-sharp-correction-says-analyst-as-crypto-joins-market-slump)
[6] Pundit Predicts New XRP Price Target for Q2 2026 - [https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/17/pundit-predicts-new-xrp-price-target-for-q2-2026/](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/17/pundit-predicts-new-xrp-price-target-for-q2-2026/)
[7] Why XRP Is Going Down? XRP Price Drops 5% as
and Retreat - [https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:df8d511ac094b:0-why-xrp-is-going-down-xrp-price-drops-5-as-bitcoin-and-ethereum-retreat-amid-heavy-crypto-profit-taking/](https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:df8d511ac094b:0-why-xrp-is-going-down-xrp-price-drops-5-as-bitcoin-and-ethereum-retreat-amid-heavy-crypto-profit-taking/)[8] 94% of XRP holders are in profit: Has the price topped? - [https://www.coinglass.com/ru/news/535525](https://www.coinglass.com/ru/news/535525)

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