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XRP is facing renewed bearish pressure as analysts highlight a growing risk of further downside amid deteriorating technical and on-chain conditions. A TD Sequential sell signal triggered by the price breaking below $3.00 has intensified concerns about an ongoing correction. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the signal appeared at a local high of $3.90 on the 3-day chart, indicating the start of a pullback [1]. Price action has since confirmed the bearish bias, with XRP falling to approximately $2.97 and struggling to regain the $3.00 level [1].
Whale activity has also contributed to the downward momentum. Over 720 million XRP were reportedly sold by large holders in a single 24-hour period, as confirmed by Santiment data [1]. This significant offloading has accelerated the decline, aligning with the broader weakening in on-chain metrics. Volume profile analysis indicates that XRP now faces resistance near $3.20 and only finds meaningful structural support below $2.48. Martinez warned that if the $2.80 zone fails to hold, the price could fall toward $2.40, a key historical support level [1].
Additional bearish signals have emerged from the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which crossed below its 200-day moving average on August 3. This so-called "death cross" typically indicates overvaluation and may signal an extended correction [1]. The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), as reported by Glassnode, shows that most of XRP’s realized value remains concentrated between $0.20 and $2.40, further supporting the idea that the price is unlikely to find significant buyers above $2.80 in the short term [1].
Martinez’s recent futures trading strategy has also underscored the volatility. His July trades closed with a 108.63% gain, but the final XRP trade—opened at $3.58—closed at breakeven near $2.66, highlighting the instability in the asset’s price behavior [1]. The bearish sentiment is compounded by the fact that XRP has now dropped nearly 19% from its yearly high of $3.66 and is currently trading around $2.96. A break below $2.85 could push the price toward $2.65 or even $2.40, according to Martinez [2].
While bullish traders remain cautiously optimistic, the immediate outlook remains bearish. A sustained close above $2.80 and a retest of $3.00 as strong support could indicate a potential reversal. Key resistance levels at $3.185, $3.25, $3.33, and $3.45 are being watched closely [1]. However, given the current on-chain and technical conditions, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, with further downside a real risk unless strong buying interest emerges.
Source: [1] XRP’s Path Ahead — Bounce or More Pain Coming? (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/67dc2-xrps-path-ahead-bounce-or-more-pain-coming) [2] XRP News Today: XRP Trapped in Consolidation as $2.85 Support, $3.10 Resistance Dictate Market Direction (https://www.ainvest.com/news/xrp-news-today-xrp-trapped-consolidation-2-85-support-3-10-resistance-dictate-market-direction-2508/)
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