XRP News Today: XRP Faces 54% Chance of Bearish Breakdown Despite 50% Upside Potential

Numerous analysts have predicted that the price of XRP could surge above $3 by 2025, citing a descending triangle pattern observed on shorter-timeframe charts. This pattern is historically bearish about half the time, indicating a potential for a significant price drop if the support levels are breached.

Prominent crypto traders, including Milkybull Crypto and Gordon, have identified similar chart structures on XRP’s charts. Milkybull suggests that XRP is "coiling up for a bigger move," pointing to a descending triangle pattern. Gordon, on the other hand, interprets the same structure as a falling wedge, which is generally considered a bullish reversal setup. He notes that the cryptocurrency “is looking primed to SEND.”

If these analyses play out as intended, XRP’s price could break above the triangle’s upper trendline and rise by an amount equal to the triangle’s height, potentially reaching $3.35, which is almost 50% higher than current price levels. However, there is a significant flaw in this prediction: descending triangles that follow uptrends result in bearish breakdowns around 54% of the time, according to chart pattern researcher Thomas Bulkowski. In the volatile crypto market, this risk is amplified, with some anecdotal studies pegging the bearish resolution rate closer to 60–70%.

The key issue lies in the misinterpretation of descending triangle structures as falling wedges. Both patterns slope downward, but the falling wedge’s lower trendline trends deeper. Descending triangles, by contrast, feature a flat support base and lower highs, often signaling that sellers are growing more aggressive. A prime example of this is XRP’s triangle formation in 2021-2022, which resulted in a breakdown.

In XRP’s current chart, the support area of $1.80-$2.00 has been tested multiple times without significant bounces—a red flag. A decisive breakdown below this support area could lead XRP’s price toward the $1 downside target, which also aligns with XRP’s aggregated realized price, the average at which traders acquired their coins.

Despite these bearish risks, there are still fundamentals that could fuel a future rally for XRP. Positive developments, such as a potential resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, positive whale flow, and rising odds of an XRP ETF approval, could overpower any bearish signals that might arise. This means that while the technical analysis suggests a potential downturn, the fundamentals could still drive the price of XRP to new record highs by 2025.