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XRP’s recent price trajectory has sparked renewed optimism among analysts, with technical indicators suggesting the token could climb to a record high of $12.50 in the coming months. The bullish outlook is anchored in XRP’s breakout from a consolidation phase spanning December 2024 to June 2025, a move likened to the triangular pattern observed before its 2017 surge [1]. This pattern, supported by alignment with the 50-week moving average (MA50) and Bollinger Bands’ two standard deviation (Stdev) bands, reinforces the potential for a sustained rally. Historical data further contextualizes this: XRP’s 2018 peak occurred near the 3 Stdev band, while the 2021 cycle stalled at the 2 Stdev level [1]. Current momentum appears to be targeting the 2 Stdev threshold, now coinciding with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which points to a price near $12.50.
The trajectory, however, is not without turbulence. Short-term volatility emerged as a large whale transaction—linked to
co-founder Chris Larsen—triggered a sharp sell-off. On July 24, a single transfer of 42 million ($140 million) intensified selling pressure, resulting in the third-largest long liquidation event on Binance this year, erasing $86 million in positions [1]. Despite this, on-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative: 2,743 wallets hold over 1 million XRP each, collectively controlling 47.32 billion tokens, or 4.4% of the circulating supply. This accumulation suggests institutional or high-net-worth interest, potentially balancing short-term bearish moves [1].At press time, XRP traded at $3.16, reflecting a 3% 24-hour gain but a 9% weekly decline. The 14-day RSI of 61.49 indicates robust buying pressure without overbought conditions, while the asset remains above both its 50-day SMA ($2.51) and 200-day SMA ($1.84), underscoring resilience in both short- and long-term trends [1]. Analysts caution that the $4 resistance zone, a key psychological barrier, remains unbroken, with further upside contingent on overcoming this level [1].
The interplay between technical patterns and on-chain dynamics underscores XRP’s complex market dynamics. While bullish signals from historical cycles and Fibonacci levels paint an optimistic picture, liquidity risks from whale activity and market sentiment could introduce headwinds. For now, the $12.50 target serves as a focal point for traders, with outcomes hinging on whether XRP can sustain its current momentum amid evolving market conditions.
Source: [1] [XRP sets sights on $12.50 as explosive rally gains steam] [https://finbold.com/xrp-sets-sights-on-12-50-as-explosive-rally-gains-steam/].

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