XRP News Today: XRP ETFs Spark Optimism, But 42% of Supply in Loss Signals Structural Risk

Ripple's XRP token faces renewed selling pressure as open interest hits a 12-month low, with analysts warning of further downside risks amid a fragile market structure. On-chain data reveals 41.5% of XRP's supply—approximately 26.5 billion tokens—is currently in a loss position, the lowest profitability level since November 2024 when the asset traded near $0.53. Despite a 4x price increase since then, the top-heavy distribution of holdings suggests structural instability, with late buyers exposed to significant unrealized losses according to analysts.

The recent volatility has been exacerbated by a wave of exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches tied to XRP. Canary Capital's XRPC ETF and Bitwise's XRP ETF generated $422 million in combined inflows within days of their November 13 debut, signaling institutional interest. However, the market's broader selloff—driven by Bitcoin's decline to $84,000 and a 9% drop in the global crypto market cap below $3 trillion—overshadowed these gains, pushing XRP below $2 on November 21 according to market data. Analysts note that while ETF inflows could eventually stabilize demand, the current environment remains fragile, with leveraged positions and macroeconomic headwinds amplifying downside risks according to market analysis.

Technical indicators highlight a critical juncture for XRP. The token has tested the $2.00–$2.06 support zone multiple times, with buyers consistently stepping in to defend the level.

A developing "pennant" pattern—a consolidation phase preceding potential breakouts—suggests that if bulls hold above $2.16, XRP could target resistance near $2.64. Yet, the 42% of circulating XRP held at a loss, coupled with large holders controlling over 68% of the supply, increases the risk of sudden price swings according to market analysis.

The broader market context adds to the uncertainty. The SEC's 2025 ruling that secondary XRP sales are not securities removed a key regulatory hurdle, but the asset remains correlated with Bitcoin's performance. The recent flash crash on derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, where BTC briefly fell to $80,255, triggered $2 billion in liquidations, and deepened the crypto market's slump according to market analysis. Analysts attribute the downturn to fading hopes of a Fed rate cut in December, declining ETF inflows, and a shift in risk appetite toward traditional assets according to market analysis.

Market participants are now watching key levels to gauge the next move. A sustained recovery above $2.16 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2.00 would likely intensify selling pressure according to technical analysis. Meanwhile, the influx of institutional capital through ETFs may eventually offset bearish fundamentals, though experts caution that liquidity and macroeconomic factors will remain pivotal according to market analysis.

As the XRP market navigates this inflection point, the interplay between on-chain dynamics, ETF activity, and broader crypto sentiment will shape its trajectory. With open interest at a 12-month low and technical indicators pointing to a critical support test, the coming weeks could determine whether XRP stabilizes or enters a deeper correction phase.