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Binance's
reserves have plunged to a 12-month low, sparking debate over whether the decline signals strength or fragility for Ripple's price. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the exchange's XRP holdings by November 27, 2025, a drop of ~100 million XRP since November 14, coinciding with the U.S. launch of spot XRP ETFs. Analysts like Darfost argue this reflects institutional demand pulling XRP into long-term portfolios, if the trend continues. However, others caution that ETF inflows alone may not drive price gains, as ETFs are constrained by a court injunction preventing direct purchases from Ripple's escrow supply .The ETF-driven demand has seen four funds-Canary, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin-record $670 million in combined inflows over nine days,
. Despite this, XRP's price has struggled, with 41.5% of its supply in a loss, per Glassnode data. Whale activity has further complicated the narrative: within 48 hours of ETF launches, pressuring the price. Analysts suggest institutional flows may take until 2026 to materialize fully, .The ETF landscape itself is expanding rapidly. Franklin Templeton and Grayscale's products were approved for listing on NYSE Arca, joining existing offerings like Bitwise's 0.34%-fee ETF and Amplify's income-focused XRPM
. These products have injected $622 million in cumulative inflows, though XRP ETF assets currently represent just 0.50% of the token's market cap-far below Bitcoin's 6.54%-suggesting growth potential . Regulatory clarity, particularly under U.S. SEC approvals, is seen as a catalyst for institutional adoption, though concerns about market manipulation persist due to XRP's concentration among large holders .Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. XRP briefly rebounded to $2.25 after ETF launches,
, per Blockonomi. Analysts cite bullish on-balance volume metrics, but the token remains below its 100-day EMA and has formed a series of lower highs, . Meanwhile, Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has seen robust growth, with to $3.5 billion, potentially supporting XRP's utility and demand.The coming months will test whether ETF-driven demand can overcome structural challenges. If institutional inflows accelerate and whale selling subsides, XRP could see a more structured bull phase. However, volatility and regulatory scrutiny remain risks. As Darfost notes, the interplay between shrinking exchange reserves and growing ETF adoption could redefine XRP's market dynamics-but only if the token's fundamentals align with the new institutional narrative
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