XRP News Today: XRP's ETF Surge Clashes with Dwindling Network Activity

XRP's recent price structure and on-chain dynamics have sparked renewed debate about its potential to break out of a prolonged bearish trend. While technical indicators suggest a fragile but improving environment, fundamental metrics reveal a stark divergence, raising questions about the sustainability of any near-term rally. The token's performance has been closely tied to broader market sentiment, with Bitcoin's volatility and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory shaping investor risk appetite.

Bitcoin's pullback below $90,000 has cast a shadow over altcoins, including XRP, which remains below its 50-day EMA at $2.38. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has been rejected at the midline, signaling continued bearish pressure, though a daily close above $2.28 could reinvigorate bullish momentum. Meanwhile, XRP derivatives Open Interest (OI) has surged past $4 billion, reflecting growing retail demand and a healthier risk-on environment. This contrasts with on-chain fundamentals, where XRP's account-to-account payment volume has plummeted by 50% over the past month, signaling a sharp decline in network activity.

The launch of altcoin ETFs has introduced a new layer of complexity to XRP's narrative. XRP ETFs have posted six consecutive days of inflows exceeding $420 million, including a record $250 million on their debut. This momentum underscores a shift in institutional and retail capital toward high-beta altcoins, particularly as Bitcoin ETFs face outflows. Analysts suggest that sustained ETF demand could drive XRP toward $3 by year-end, provided macroeconomic volatility subsides. However, on-chain data reveals a less optimistic picture: transaction counts have dropped to 686,000 per day in late November, a significant decline from earlier averages of 1.2-1.5 million.

The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting looms as a critical catalyst. With CME FedWatch data showing an 81% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, investors are recalibrating risk exposure. A cut would likely bolster demand for risk assets like XRP, though technical indicators remain mixed. XRP's MACD indicator has generated a buy signal, offering a potential catalyst for a short-term rebound. Yet, the token's positioning below key EMAs and its reliance on ETF-driven inflows highlight structural vulnerabilities.

Looking ahead, the interplay between macroeconomic signals and on-chain fundamentals will determine XRP's trajectory. While ETF inflows and Fed easing could spark a late-year rally, the network's declining payment volume and transaction activity suggest underlying weakness. Investors may need to balance optimism about regulatory-driven adoption with caution regarding the token's ability to sustain momentum.