XRP News Today: XRP ETF Inflows vs. 90% Inventory Drop: Can Market Absorb the Surge?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) October 2025 deadline for XRP ETF approvals has intensified speculation about a potential "supply shock" in the cryptocurrency's market dynamics. Analysts warn that institutional demand for XRP, driven by ETF inflows, could outpace limited exchange liquidity, creating upward pressure on prices. Coinbase's XRP inventory has plummeted by nearly 90% in recent months, with only 100 million tokens remaining, exacerbating concerns about supply constraints. If ETFs gain approval, institutions may need to purchase XRP directly from retail holders-many of whom are long-term investors unwilling to sell unless prices reach $10 or higher. Some estimates suggest $5–$8 billion in inflows could occur within the first month alone, dwarfing Bitcoin ETF launches.

The impending ETF decisions align with broader institutional adoption of XRP, including partnerships with banks and central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilots in Palau, Montenegro, and Brazil. Ripple's XRP Ledger is also being integrated for cross-border settlements, further enhancing its utility. Institutional lockup projections, such as Axelar Network's $10 billion XRP treasury and Flare Networks' 5 billion XRP allocation, could reduce circulating supply by 13%, leaving only 21 million XRP available for public trading. This scarcity, combined with potential ETF-driven demand, creates a "perfect storm" scenario for price appreciation.

Technical analysis reinforces the bullish case. XRP has been consolidating within a descending channel near $2.85, with key support at $2.75 and resistance at $3.00. A breakout above $3.00 could trigger a 35% rally to $4 by October's end, mirroring its July 2025 surge. Analysts highlight that a $3.62 target-a 30% gain from current levels-requires overcoming confluence resistance at $3.33 and sustaining above the 50-period exponential moving average. Volume confirmation above 6 billion daily average is critical for sustained momentum.

While short-term volatility remains a risk, the confluence of ETF approvals, supply constraints, and institutional adoption positions XRP for significant price action. Standard Chartered projects a $5.50 year-end target, while James Crypto Space speculates $9 could be reached if supply shock dynamics accelerate. However, analysts caution that regulatory clarity and macroeconomic factors-such as U.S. dollar weakness-will remain pivotal. A U.S. government shutdown, for instance, could delay ETF decisions and trigger short-term corrections.

The XRP market's unique dynamics contrast with Bitcoin and Ethereum. A $10,000 investment in XRP six months ago would now be worth $40,101, outperforming BTC ($13,275) and ETH ($7,516). This performance underscores XRP's potential as a high-conviction play in a fragmented crypto landscape. As October approaches, the SEC's rulings will serve as a binary catalyst, either accelerating institutional adoption or reinforcing supply-side bottlenecks.