XRP News Today: "XRP's ETF Hopes vs. Whale Exodus: Can $2.70 Support Hold?"

XRP faces critical price tests near $2.70–$2.80 support as whale outflows and on-chain data signal weakening demand. The token's price action has drawn comparisons to its 2017 bull market setup, though analysts caution that current market conditions differ significantly. With six XRP ETF applications pending SEC approval between October 18–25, 2025, institutional inflows could reshape the asset's trajectory. However, persistent whale selling-exceeding $50 million daily in outflows-adds downward pressure, raising concerns about a potential capitulation wick similar to historical corrections.

On-chain metrics reveal rising exchange reserves, now exceeding 3.5 billion XRP, indicating reduced long-term accumulation. Withdrawals from exchanges have plummeted to fewer than 500 transactions weekly, down from 2.2 million in 2024, underscoring diminished retail participation. Meanwhile, whale activity remains mixed: while a 50M XRP accumulation last week valued at $150 million suggests strategic positioning, recent large transfers, such as 17.5M XRP from Kraken, highlight ongoing distribution.

Technical analysis highlights a descending triangle pattern, with XRP consolidating between $2.70 (support) and $3.65 (resistance). Analysts like Ali Martinez and Galaxy note structural similarities to 2017's consolidation phase, which preceded a 11,900% rally. However, divergences exist: long-term holder sentiment, measured by NUPL, has shifted from euphoria to doubt, mirroring 2021's market top rather than 2017's bullish conviction. A successful breakout above $3.02 could target $3.60–$3.62, but failure to defend $2.70 risks a pullback to $2.40.

ETF-related developments remain pivotal. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, launched September 18, has attracted $66 million in assets, while CoinShares reported $93 million in inflows into XRP products last week. If approved, spot ETFs could trigger a supply squeeze, as issuers purchase XRP directly from the market. However, SEC delays or rejections would likely cap upside potential.

Market volatility intensified following a 41% intraday crash to $1.64 on October 11, 2025, driven by Trump's 100% tariff announcement and $19 billion in global liquidations. Institutional buyers absorbed panic selling, stabilizing XRP above $2.47. Whale accumulation of 1.04 billion XRP during the rebound suggests defensive positioning, but derivatives data shows open interest at $8.33 billion and a long/short ratio of 3.86, reflecting fragile bullish momentum.

AI-driven forecasts project a $3.10–$3.20 range under moderate macro conditions, with a $4.50 bull case contingent on ETF approvals. Conversely, delays could extend consolidation near $2.00–$2.20. The XRP/BTC pair remains 90% below its 2017 peak, trading in a distribution zone at 0.000025–0.000030 BTC, where prior rallies stalled between 2019–2022.