XRP News Today: XRP's ETF Hopes Battle Whale-Driven Sell-Off in Regulatory Limbo

XRP faces mounting pressure as whale activity intensifies, with over $50 million worth of the token exiting large wallets daily since early 2024, according to Whale Flow data analyzed using a 30-day moving average BeInCrypto^[1]. This sustained outflow has exacerbated bearish sentiment, with analysts noting that such deliberate distribution patterns often precede extended price declines Coinedition^[2]. CryptoQuant data corroborates the trend, showing consistent net outflows since mid-July 2025 Cryptopolitan^[3].

Technical analysts, including Peter Brandt, have flagged XRP's price action as a "short candidate" if it completes a descending triangle pattern. A breakdown below the critical support level of $2.68 could trigger a decline to $2.22, representing a 22% drop from current levels Cointelegraph^[4]. Meanwhile, the asset's price has struggled to reclaim the $3.00 threshold, trading near $2.83 as of the latest data BeInCrypto^[1].

The market remains divided between bearish technical indicators and bullish ETF-related optimism. Some commentators speculate that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve a spot XRP ETF by October 18, potentially sparking a rally BeInCrypto^[1]. However, regulatory experts caution that immediate approval faces hurdles, with Trackinsight and CF Benchmarks highlighting legal and procedural challenges BeInCrypto^[1]. Polymarket odds show over 99% probability of approval by 2025, though market participants remain wary of a "sell-the-news" scenario if whales use ETF-related optimism to offload holdings Cryptopolitan^[3].

On-chain data reveals a broader context of capital rotation, with XRP underperforming against Bitcoin and BNB chain assets in recent months Coinedition^[2]. Ripple's regulatory progress in the European Union, including compliance with MiCA rules, has partially offset U.S. uncertainty Coinedition^[2]. Additionally, institutional demand for XRP has grown, with entities like Reliance Group Global adding $17 million to its treasury Coinedition^[2].

Retail sentiment has turned sharply bearish, with Santiment reporting record fear levels since April's Trump-era tariff announcements-a historically contrarian signal . Conversely, some analysts argue that a clean breakout above $3.15 could invalidate the descending triangle and target $3.60, citing accumulation patterns and order-book strength .

XRP's market cap currently stands at $177 billion, trailing BNB's $178 billion, underscoring the sensitivity of even modest price movements to broader market dynamics . With whales maintaining a steady selling pace and regulatory outcomes looming, the coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the asset regains bullish momentum or faces further consolidation.