XRP News Today: XRP ETF's Bullish Launch Contrasts with Bearish Death Cross and Fibonacci Breakdown

XRP's price trajectory remains a focal point for investors as the first U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) launched on November 13, 2025, sparking both optimism and caution. The Canary XRP ETF, managed by Canary Capital, attracted $58 million in trading volume on its debut and now holds over $248 million in assets. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for XRP, with the token trading at $2.26 as of November 15-down from its year-to-date high of $3.6650.

The price action has raised red flags among analysts. XRP has formed a "death cross" pattern, where the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) crossed below key support levels. Additionally, the token has posted a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing a downtrend. A small head-and-shoulders pattern and a breakdown below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level further signal potential for a drop to $1.7707, the October low.

Despite these bearish signals, the ETF's success has introduced bullish catalysts. The fund's rapid inflows and Ripple's stablecoin, RLUSD, crossing $1 billion in market cap, highlight growing institutional interest. Yet, the broader crypto market remains under pressure, with XRP's price struggling against a backdrop of weak retail demand and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Egrag Crypto's analysis has drawn parallels between XRP's recent price action and Bitcoin's trajectory around the launch of its spot ETFs. The comparison outlines three phases: an initial 20% decline, followed by a 91% rebound, and a final 230% surge. Applying this pattern to XRP, the firm projected potential downside to $2.01 and upside targets of $3.85 and $6.64. However, market participants caution that such historical comparisons are not guarantees, given differences in regulatory contexts and market structures.

On-chain data reveals mixed signals ahead of the ETF's launch. While 216 million XRP tokens left exchanges in the week prior to the ETF approval-a sign of bullish positioning- large holders sold 90 million tokens in the days before trading began. Active XRP addresses hit a three-month high, indicating rising retail interest, though open interest in futures contracts has fallen, suggesting reduced leverage in the market.

Technical analysts remain split. Some argue that XRP's price could break above $2.88, forming a falling wedge pattern, while others warn of a potential drop to $2.06 if support at $2.31 fails. The token's proximity to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level has made it a key battleground for bulls and bears.

Market observers are also watching institutional flows closely. The ETF's potential to drive $5 billion in inflows within weeks could mirror Bitcoin and Ethereum's ETF adoption cycles. However, early data shows that XRP's supply in profit has fallen to a one-year low, with holders averaging 44 million tokens in unrealized gains. This metric suggests a possible turning point, as reduced selling pressure could pave the way for a short-term recovery.

As the crypto market awaits a clear catalyst, XRP's ETF-driven momentum remains a wildcard. While regulatory clarity and institutional access have opened new doors for the asset, the broader market's risk-off sentiment and technical headwinds continue to weigh on its prospects.