XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise to 87% as Whale Activity and Analysts Signal Big Money Moves

Polymarket’s updated odds for the approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025 now stand at 87%, marking a significant rise from 64% in August. This surge in confidence aligns with a growing number of ETF applications under review by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with approximately 11 proposals currently pending, including applications from major financial firms such as Franklin Templeton and Grayscale. The regulatory landscape has improved following Ripple’s 2024 legal victory, which clarified XRP’s non-security status, and the SEC’s apparent shift in stance under new leadership. Analysts, including Nate Geraci of the ETF Store, have suggested that the actual probability of approval may be closer to 100%, citing the momentum toward final decisions in late October and November [1].

Market observers are paying close attention to potential XRP price movements in anticipation of ETF approval. Technical indicators suggest a possible bullish breakout, with XRP forming a classic bull flag pattern on the daily chart. This pattern, if confirmed by a price breakout above the $3 resistance level, could target a new all-time high near $5. Analysts have also noted key support levels around $2.68 and $2.48, which will be critical for maintaining the bullish trend [3]. Additionally, historical data from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches, which saw inflows of over $54 billion and $13 billion respectively, provide a benchmark for the potential demand that could flow into XRP ETFs upon approval [4].

In terms of expected inflows, forecasts have been bullish, with some analysts predicting up to $5 billion in inflows within the first month of XRP ETF trading and up to $8 billion within the first year. These predictions are supported by the performance of existing XRP-related products, such as Teucrium’s leveraged XRP ETF, which has attracted $353 million in net assets—surpassing the combined assets of the firm’s traditional agro-based ETFs. Moreover, CME Group’s XRP futures have seen open interest exceed $1 billion, signaling strong institutional and retail demand for exposure to the asset [1].

The market has also seen increased whale activity, with recent data from Santiment showing that whales have accumulated 350 million XRP coins worth $984 million over the past two weeks, reversing a prior trend of large-scale selling. This accumulation could further fuel price appreciation if ETF approvals drive increased demand [1]. However, risks remain, including regulatory delays and broader market volatility, which could dampen enthusiasm. Despite the high approval odds, some analysts caution that the XRP market’s structure and history differ from Bitcoin and Ethereum, and thus the same outcomes may not be guaranteed [4].

In the context of AI-driven price projections, several models have offered bullish scenarios. ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok have all suggested that XRP could surge to $4–$5 in a conservative scenario and potentially exceed $10–$15 under favorable conditions such as a broader crypto bull market, renewed retail interest, and continued whale accumulation. These models highlight how ETF approval could open the door to institutional and retail participation, legitimizing XRP as a mainstream financial asset and boosting its adoption curve [2].

As the regulatory decisions approach, with key deadlines set for October 18 to November 14, market participants are closely monitoring developments. The growing consensus is that XRP ETFs could unlock significant institutional capital, further amplifying demand and potentially driving the price to levels not seen before. However, the final outcome will depend on regulatory clarity, market dynamics, and the broader cryptocurrency environment [1].

Source:

[1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html)

[2] How High Will XRP's Price Go if All Ripple ETFs Are... (https://cryptopotato.com/how-high-will-xrps-price-go-if-all-ripple-etfs-are-approved-in-2025-3-ais-give-big-predictions/)

[3] Classic XRP price chart pattern targets $5 as spot ETF... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/classic-xrp-price-chart-pattern-5-spot-etf-reality-draws-closer)

[4] XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1092956-20250904)