XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise to 86% as SEC Streamlines Crypto Framework

The potential approval of a spot-based XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is drawing closer, with key developments suggesting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could make a decision by October 2025. Analysts and industry observers are increasingly optimistic, particularly after the SEC introduced a streamlined framework for crypto ETF listings, which eases the path for XRP and other altcoins that meet specific criteria, such as having six months of active futures trading on recognized exchanges [1].

Eric Balchunas, a noted analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted that this new regulatory approach favors altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, which already satisfy the eligibility conditions for ETF consideration [1]. The updated framework also permits in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms, a development that aligns crypto ETFs more closely with traditional commodity-backed funds [1]. Legal experts, including Bill Morgan, have noted that these changes significantly reduce operational complexity and increase the chances of approval [1].

Currently, multiple XRP ETF proposals—submitted by firms such as Bitwise and Franklin Templeton—are under review. While the SEC has delayed Franklin Templeton’s application until late 2025, the broader regulatory environment seems to be shifting in favor of XRP [1]. Balchunas estimates the approval probability at 85%, a view supported by prediction markets like Polymarket, where the odds hover around 86% [1].

Despite this progress, legal challenges persist. The ongoing litigation between Ripple and the SEC has introduced uncertainty, though some speculate that both parties may drop their appeals before a key court update on August 15, potentially removing a significant hurdle [1]. If this occurs, the XRP ETF could receive final approval as early as October 2025.

Market sentiment also reflects a strong belief in the likelihood of approval. Prediction platforms show the probability of an XRP ETF being approved before the end of 2025 rising to 90%, while separate reports indicate the odds at 86% [2]. These figures suggest that the market is already factoring in a high probability of approval, which may influence trading activity and investor sentiment [2].

The broader crypto ETF landscape is also evolving, with the SEC delaying its decision on the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF until September 18 [3]. While this delay creates some uncertainty, it also allows for deeper evaluation of different ETF structures. Analysts have noted that futures-based and multi-asset ETFs may provide more immediate opportunities for market participants [3].

Should the XRP ETF gain approval, it could set a precedent for a wave of altcoin-based ETFs, diversifying the crypto investment landscape. However, the final outcome remains dependent on the SEC’s decision. While expectations are high, actual results may differ.

Source:

[1] Coindoo (https://coindoo.com/when-will-the-xrp-etf-finally-get-the-green-light/)

[2] CryptoRank (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/39b12-xrp-whale-count-hits-record-as-canada-s-first-spot-etf-goes-live)

[3] CryptoNinjas (https://www.cryptoninjas.net/news/sec-pushes-crypto-etf-decisions-again-100b-market-waits-on-truth-social-and-grayscale-rulings/)