XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise to 45% by July 2025 Amid Regulatory Clarity

In recent developments within the digital asset market, the discussion surrounding the XRP ETF has intensified, capturing the attention of market participants. Two notable platforms, AI agent AIXBT and Elon Musk’s Grok, have provided insights into the likelihood of approval by July 2025. Their comments follow Ripple Labs' decision to drop its cross-appeal in the ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Earlier this year, Ripple confirmed its intention to end its cross-appeal in the case against the SEC, marking a significant turning point in the prolonged legal dispute. The SEC is expected to follow suit, effectively concluding the case. This move has lifted the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP, fostering a renewed sense of optimism across the market. AIXBT highlighted that XRP is the only major asset with full regulatory clarity, predicting that ETF applications could be filed as early as July. This view is shared by Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, who described the situation as a closed chapter and suggested that major asset managers, such as BlackRock, could now be involved.

Elon Musk’s AI assistant, Grok, aligns with AIXBT’s views to some extent but takes a more cautious approach regarding July expectations. According to prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of an XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025, currently sit at 45%. In contrast, approval odds rise sharply to 80–98% by year-end, reflecting the broader market consensus that Q4 is a more realistic window. Analysts note that while early approvals are technically possible by late June or early July, the more likely timeline falls between September and October. The formal review process by the SEC assigns up to 240 days. Key application deadlines for firms like Franklin Templeton stretch into October, and there have already been delays in the SEC’s decisions for the XRP ETF. For context, filings from Franklin Templeton and 21Shares were delayed in May and June. These developments suggest that investors may need to temper their expectations in the short term while keeping a close eye on Q4.

Despite the lower chances for a July approval, the overall direction remains positive for the XRP ETF. Managers such as Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton have all filed applications, indicating that asset managers are optimistic about eventual approval. Analysts point to Ripple’s recent legal win and the growing success of XRP ETF and futures products as indicators of the token’s improving profile. Legal expert Jeremy Hogan cautioned that even if initial approval comes earlier than expected, the S-1 registration process could still extend the timeline by another 8 to 12 months. This means that while sentiment is strong, the final launch dates for the XRP ETF could shift well into 2026, depending on the SEC’s response. For now, XRP stands alone as a significant asset with regulatory clarity, a status that has attracted both optimism and caution. With July just around the corner, the focus is now on whether BlackRock’s paperwork will hit the SEC’s desk on time.