XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Fall to 65% Amid SEC Commissioner Crenshaw's Opposition

The approval prospects for a U.S. XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have been significantly impacted by the ongoing opposition from Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw. Recent developments show that the odds of XRP ETF approval, as tracked on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, dropped to 65% after traders factored in Crenshaw’s likely vote against the proposal [1]. This marked a sharp decline from earlier levels that had reached as high as 90%, reflecting a sudden shift in market sentiment [2].

Crenshaw’s position on crypto ETFs has become a consistent point of contention. She has voted against all 13 crypto ETF proposals reviewed internally by the SEC this year, including those for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as related rule changes [1]. Despite other commissioners approving these proposals, Crenshaw remains the sole dissenter, raising concerns about the regulatory environment for digital assets [2]. Her influence has contributed to a stall in XRP ETF discussions, even though XRP has met updated SEC standards for token listings, including a six-month track record in derivatives trading [1].

The market is now closely watching how Crenshaw’s stance will affect upcoming SEC votes. While her vote has not historically determined the final outcome—since her position has often been outvoted—her continued resistance has introduced uncertainty into the approval timeline. With the expected 2025 decision looming, market participants are anticipating further delays or rejections, particularly if Crenshaw maintains her current position [1].

Speculation has also been fueled by reports that BlackRock, one of the largest asset managers in the U.S., may enter the XRP ETF space. The firm’s digital asset director, Maxwell Stein, is set to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 event, suggesting a possible expansion into XRP-related products [1]. However, even with rising institutional interest, Crenshaw’s opposition remains a critical variable in the equation. Her critique of SEC guidance on stablecoins and staking protocols further underscores her strict regulatory stance [1].

Despite these challenges, XRP ETFs continue to gain traction globally. A Japanese firm, SBI Holdings, has submitted an application for an ETF that includes both Bitcoin and XRP, signaling growing institutional adoption outside the U.S. [1]. This international momentum may help offset delays in the U.S., reinforcing the long-term viability of XRP as an ETF asset.

However, the near-term outlook remains uncertain. The XRP ETF approval process has lost some of its momentum since mid-2024, with Crenshaw’s influence casting a shadow over what was previously seen as a favorable regulatory environment. Analysts remain divided, with some suggesting the market has overreacted to her opposition. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, has maintained a 95% confidence level in eventual XRP ETF approval, arguing that Crenshaw’s vote is a temporary hurdle rather than an insurmountable obstacle [3].

As the SEC’s decision date draws closer, investors are left navigating a landscape of regulatory unpredictability. The final outcome will likely depend on the broader consensus among SEC commissioners, but for now, Crenshaw’s position remains the most visible roadblock in the path of XRP ETF approval.

Source: [1] title1 (https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/08/08/xrp-etf-approval-chances-on-polymarket-drops-after-sec-opposition/) [2] title2 (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=738964042350140&set=a.130****63246274&type=3) [3] title3 (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=738961655683712&set=a.130****63246274&type=3)