XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Fall to 65% Amid SEC Commissioner's Continued Opposition

The approval prospects for an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have dimmed following renewed opposition from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, with approval odds dropping to 65% from earlier estimates of 90% [1]. The decline was recorded on prediction market platform Polymarket, signaling a shift in investor sentiment and highlighting the growing influence of Crenshaw’s stance within the regulatory body. Crenshaw, the only Democrat on the current SEC, has consistently voted against crypto-related ETF proposals, including those tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and in-kind redemption mechanisms [1].

Her solo opposition has become a red flag for market participants hopeful about altcoin ETFs. Across the 13 most recent internal SEC votes on crypto ETPs, Crenshaw remained the sole dissenter in each instance. Journalist Eleanor Terrett noted that this pattern conveys a “clear message” of her continued resistance to future ETF approvals, particularly for alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP [1]. Beyond ETFs, Crenshaw has also criticized the SEC staff’s guidance on liquid staking and stablecoins, questioning their legal and factual validity [1].

The market had previously experienced a surge in optimism after the launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca on July 18. This development pushed the XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket up to 86%. However, Crenshaw’s latest objections, especially in relation to NYSE Arca filings, caused the odds to dip to a low of 65% before rebounding slightly to 71% [1].

Despite the setback, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has pointed out that the newly established SEC listing requirements—favoring tokens with at least six months of derivatives trading—have been met by XRP [1]. This development could potentially support future ETF applications. Additionally, speculation is growing that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may be preparing to file for an XRP ETF, as its Director of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein, is scheduled to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference [1].

Crenshaw’s influence reveals a significant divide within the SEC. While the approval of in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has brought them closer to commodity-based ETPs like gold, Crenshaw’s consistent dissent could complicate similar approvals for altcoins [1]. If her position gains broader support within the SEC, it may serve as a formidable obstacle for XRP ETF hopefuls.

For now, the XRP ETF path remains open but increasingly uncertain. Market confidence has been shaken, and the regulatory landscape remains in flux. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Crenshaw’s resistance will be countered or whether her stance will continue to shape the SEC’s approach to altcoin ETFs [1].

Sources:

[1] SEC Commissioner Opposes Crypto ETFs, XRP ETF Approval Odds Drop – CoinGape (https://coingape.com/sec-commissioner-opposes-crypto-etfs-xrp-etf-approval-odds-drop/)