XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Fall to 62% as SEC Commissioner Opposes

Traders on the prediction market Polymarket have significantly reduced their confidence in the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) after U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw expressed her opposition [1]. The probability of approval dropped from 86% to 62% over the course of two days following the revelation of her stance [2]. This decline reflects the broader uncertainty created by Crenshaw’s consistent opposition to crypto-related investment products [3].

Despite the bearish market reaction, top Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remains confident, maintaining his personal approval odds at 95% [4]. Balchunas argues that Crenshaw’s vote, while influential, is not decisive given her minority position within the SEC. He emphasizes that the broader regulatory trend—such as the SEC’s recent approval of in-kind redemption mechanisms for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—supports the long-term likelihood of XRP ETF approval [5].

Crenshaw’s stance against crypto ETFs is not new. She has consistently voted against such proposals, including recent approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum funds in a 3-1 decision [6]. Her opposition is viewed by some as part of a larger strategy to maintain regulatory caution, particularly around assets like XRP, which have faced legal scrutiny [7]. However, market analysts suggest that while her actions may delay or complicate the approval process, they are unlikely to prevent it entirely [8].

Meanwhile, global interest in XRP ETFs continues to grow. Japanese financial firm SBI Holdings has already submitted a filing for an ETF that includes both Bitcoin and XRP, signaling strong international demand for such products [9]. This development underscores the increasing acceptance of crypto-based investment vehicles in markets where regulatory environments are more accommodating [10].

As the debate over XRP ETF approval continues in the U.S., the global market is moving forward. The growing interest, coupled with Ripple’s efforts to meet updated SEC listing criteria, suggests that the U.S. could eventually follow suit [11].

Source:

[1] title: XRP ETF Odds Drop to 62%, But Top Analyst Still at 95%

url: https://coinedition.com/xrp-etf-approval-odds-bloomberg-analyst-confident-sec-stance/

[2] title: XRP ETF Approval Chances on Polymarket Drops After SEC Opposition

url: https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/08/08/xrp-etf-approval-chances-on-polymarket-drops-after-sec-opposition/

[3] title: XRP ETF Approval Odds Fall to 62% After SEC Opposes

url: https://holder.io/news/xrp-etf-approval-odds-fall-62-sec-opposes/

[4] title: XRP ETF Odds Drop to 62%, But Top Analyst Still at 95%

[5] title: XRP ETF Approval Odds Fall to 65% Amid SEC Commissioner's Continued Opposition

url: https://www.ainvest.com/news/xrp-news-today-xrp-etf-approval-odds-fall-65-sec-commissioner-continued-opposition-2508/

[6] title: XRP ETF Approval Drops as SEC Commissioner...

url: https://coincentral.com/xrp-etf-approval-drops-as-sec-commissioner-crenshaw-votes-against-it/

[7] title: SEC's Crenshaw Says No to XRP ETF

url: https://timestabloid.com/secs-crenshaw-says-no-to-xrp-etf/

[8] title: XRP ETF Confidence Slips as SEC Commissioner Holds...

url: https://coindoo.com/xrp-etf-confidence-slips-as-sec-commissioner-holds-firm/

[9] title: XRP ETF Odds Drop to 62%, But Top Analyst Still at 95%

[10] title: XRP ETF Approval Odds Plunge. Top Bloomberg Analyst...

url: https://u.today/xrp-etf-approval-odds-plunge-top-bloomberg-analyst-says-its-overreaction

[11] title: XRP ETF Odds Drop to 62%, But Top Analyst Still at 95%