XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Drop to 62 as SEC Commissioner Opposes but Expert Remains Confident at 95%

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Thursday, Aug 7, 2025 2:56 pm ET1min read
Aime RobotAime Summary

- XRP ETF approval odds dropped to 62% as SEC Commissioner Crenshaw announced opposition, heightening market uncertainty.

- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas maintains 95% confidence, citing SEC's broader pro-crypto ETF trends and Crenshaw's minority stance.

- SEC recently approved in-kind redemption mechanisms for Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs, signaling growing regulatory acceptance of crypto assets.

- International momentum builds with Japan's SBI Holdings filing XRP/Bitcoin ETF, while Ripple complies with updated SEC listing criteria.

The recent development surrounding the

XRP
ETF has caused a shift in market sentiment, with prediction markets like Polymarket adjusting the odds of approval from 86% to 62% within just two days. The decline was largely attributed to the disclosure that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw intends to vote against the proposal, reinforcing her well-documented resistance to crypto-based ETFs [1]. Her position has historically aligned with a cautious approach to digital assets, particularly in the context of ETF structures, adding to the uncertainty for market participants [2].

Despite this, Bloomberg’s top ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, continues to maintain a high confidence level, forecasting a 95% chance of XRP ETF approval. In a recent tweet, he pointed out that Crenshaw’s vote—while significant—does not reflect the broader direction of the SEC, as her position is often outnumbered by her fellow commissioners. He also noted that her stance remains consistent across all crypto ETF-related votes, meaning the fundamental outlook has not changed [1]. This contrast between market sentiment and expert analysis has sparked discussion about the true likelihood of an XRP ETF being approved.

The regulatory environment appears to be evolving in favor of crypto ETFs, with the SEC recently approving in-kind redemption mechanisms for

Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
ETFs. On July 29, the agency approved 13 votes related to crypto products with a 3-1 margin, including Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum funds [1]. This trend suggests a growing acceptance of crypto-based investment vehicles within the U.S. regulatory framework, even in the face of internal resistance.

Internationally, the appetite for an XRP ETF is gaining momentum. Ripple’s partner, SBI Holdings in Japan, has already filed for an ETF that includes both Bitcoin and XRP, demonstrating the product’s viability in other jurisdictions [1]. This global interest, paired with Ripple’s compliance with the SEC’s updated listing criteria for crypto assets, is seen as a positive signal for potential U.S. approval.

While Crenshaw’s opposition remains a point of contention, it is widely viewed as one hurdle among many rather than a definitive roadblock. The U.S. regulatory landscape continues to be dynamic, and the market is closely watching for potential filings from major Wall Street institutions that could influence the trajectory of the XRP ETF application process [1].

Source:

[1] title1.............................(https://coinedition.com/xrp-etf-approval-odds-bloomberg-analyst-confident-sec-stance/)

[2] title2.............................(https://u.today/xrp-etf-approval-odds-plunge-top-bloomberg-analyst-says-its-overreaction)