XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds Near 87% as Bullish Patterns and Institutional Interest Align

XRP analysts have increasingly highlighted the potential for substantial returns if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025. According to market data, the probability of an XRP ETF approval stands at 87% as of recent assessments, a significant increase from 64% in August. This optimism is fueled by a combination of regulatory clarity, the timing of upcoming SEC decisions, and strong investor demand for altcoin exposure. Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, has emphasized that the chances of approval are “closer to 100%” given the proximity to key decision dates, which range from October 18 to November 14 for various proposals.

Market analysts project that a successful approval could result in a surge in inflows. JPMorgan analysts previously estimated that XRP ETFs could attract up to $8 billion in assets within the first year, while Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg has predicted up to $5 billion in inflows during the first month of trading. Historical performance of similar products supports these expectations. For instance, Teucrium’s leveraged XRP ETF, launched in April 2025, has already attracted $353 million in net assets. The precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—which recorded over $54 billion and $13 billion in inflows respectively—further underlines the potential demand for XRP products.

Technical indicators also suggest that XRP could see a strong upward move. The asset is currently trading within a bull flag pattern on the daily chart, with resistance at $3. A confirmed breakout above this level could signal a path toward $5, representing a 77% increase from the current price. Analysts such as Crypto Pulse have emphasized the importance of holding above key support levels, particularly the 100-day moving average at $2.68, to maintain the bullish structure. If the pattern resolves as expected, XRP could reach all-time highs, potentially driven by increased institutional participation following an ETF approval.

The regulatory environment is also shifting in a favorable direction. The SEC has received over 90 crypto ETF applications, including approximately 11 XRP-specific proposals. With the agency reviewing these applications under a new three-condition listing framework, XRP is well-positioned to qualify for an expedited approval process. The framework includes requirements such as trading on a designated contract market and meeting minimum liquidity thresholds. XRP is expected to meet these criteria in September 2025, further supporting the case for a favorable regulatory outcome.

Despite the positive outlook, risks remain. XRP has experienced significant volatility in recent months, trading at $2.81 as of September 2025—a 23% decline from its July high. Whale selling activity, totaling $6 billion in three weeks, contributed to this downward pressure. However, recent on-chain data indicates a reversal in whale behavior, with $984 million worth of XRP repurchased in the last two weeks. This trend, coupled with improving sentiment on ETF platforms such as Polymarket, suggests that short-term bearish momentum may be waning.

In summary, the convergence of strong technical patterns, regulatory progress, and robust investor demand positions XRP as one of the most watched altcoins in the lead-up to potential ETF approvals in 2025. Analysts suggest that a successful outcome could unlock institutional capital and drive the price toward $5, representing a 77% increase from current levels. While uncertainties remain, the current trajectory indicates that XRP could deliver substantial returns for investors who position themselves ahead of a potential market catalyst.

Source:

[1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people underestimate demand' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html)

[2] What's next for XRP price as ETF approval chances hit 87%? (https://crypto.news/whats-next-for-xrp-price-as-etf-approval-chances-hit-87)

[3] Classic XRP price chart pattern targets $5 as spot ETF reality draws closer (https://cointelegraph.com/news/classic-xrp-price-chart-pattern-5-spot-etf-reality-draws-closer)

[4] What to expect from XRP price if the SEC green-lights ETFs (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-how-the-sec-could-fast-track-approval-of-xrp-etfs-202509021715)