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The long-awaited
exchange-traded fund (ETF) appears to be closer to reality as key regulatory milestones approach. Analysts, including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, have projected that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve XRP ETF applications as early as September or October 2025 [1][2]. This potential approval would mark a significant milestone for XRP, which has faced regulatory hurdles due to its ongoing legal battle with the SEC [3].Recent changes to SEC regulations have improved the prospects for XRP ETFs. A new framework now allows crypto ETFs to be listed if the underlying asset has six months of active futures trading, a requirement that XRP meets [2]. Additionally, the SEC’s decision to permit in-kind creation and redemption—where ETFs are settled using the actual tokens—has brought crypto ETFs closer in structure to traditional commodity funds, potentially increasing scalability and reducing operational costs [2].
A critical legal update is expected by August 15, 2025, when
and the SEC are required to submit new filings regarding their ongoing dispute. This procedural step could serve as a pivotal moment, providing clarity on whether the SEC will proceed with ETF approvals [3]. Some legal insiders speculate that both sides may withdraw appeals, which could remove a major regulatory roadblock and accelerate the timeline for approval [3].Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape is evolving internationally. SBI Holdings and Franklin Templeton have filed a joint application for a combined
and XRP ETF in Japan. Though no official approval date has been set, the application underscores growing institutional interest in XRP and reflects a broader trend of regulatory progress in the region [5].Market sentiment has been mixed, with XRP experiencing volatility as investors await the outcome of the legal and regulatory developments. Analysts suggest that a resolution in the Ripple case will likely serve as a key catalyst for price movement, though current sentiment remains cautiously optimistic [7].
If the SEC approves XRP ETFs, the market could see a significant influx of institutional capital, potentially boosting XRP’s price and liquidity. Some forecasts suggest that XRP could reach $4 by October 1 if the ETF applications are approved [1].
As the industry watches these key dates, the potential approval of an XRP ETF could mark a turning point in the broader adoption of altcoins in institutional markets.
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Source:
[1] Prediction: XRP Will Hit $4 by Oct. 1, Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-xrp-hit-4-oct-103000941.html
[2] Prediction: XRP Will Hit $4 by Oct. 1, The, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/JPM-N/pressreleases/33917959/prediction-xrp-will-hit-4-by-oct-1/
[3] $XRP Price Drops – But Big Legal News Could Be Coming ...,
, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27983731070177[4] Prediction: XRP and
Will Struggle Mightily in ..., AOL.com, https://www.aol.com/prediction-xrp-dogecoin-struggle-mightily-075100100.html[5] Franklin Templeton backs XRP ETF play in Japan with ¥ ..., CryptoRank, https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/fa055-franklin-templeton-backs-xrp-etf-play-in-japan-with-%C2%A5300-trillion-aum
[6] XRP ETF Approval Looms as Altcoin Rally Gains Momentum, AInvest, https://www.ainvest.com/news/xrp-news-today-xrp-etf-approval-looms-altcoin-rally-gains-momentum-2508/
[7] XRP Price Drops as Analyst Claims SEC Case Resolution ..., Binance, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27978583786042

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