XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Likelihood Surges to 95% Amid Regulatory Optimism

XRP has once again captured the attention of the financial world as the likelihood of a Spot XRP ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has surged to 95%. This optimistic outlook places XRP among the leading contenders for approval, alongside Litecoin and Solana. Several prominent firms, including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin, have submitted applications for a Spot XRP ETF. The first official filing was made on January 30, 2025, with the SEC acknowledging it shortly thereafter. The final decision from the SEC is anticipated by October 17, 2025.

Despite this positive regulatory momentum, XRP’s price remains within a tight range, trading between $2.19 and $2.35. The token has repeatedly tested both resistance and support zones, indicating a period of consolidation. Unless the price breaks above $2.35 or falls below $2.19, XRP is likely to continue moving sideways in the coming days or even weeks. A move below $2.19 could see the price retesting the $2.05 to $2.10 region, while a clean breakout above $2.35 might spark a short-term rally.

According to CoinCodex, XRP is expected to see steady growth in the second half of 2025. In July, the price could range between $2.16 and $2.47, offering a possible 11.14% return for buyers at current levels. In August, prices might rise slightly to a range of $2.18 to $2.50. By September, XRP could climb to around $2.47, with a trading range of $2.29 to $2.60. October is expected to stay positive, with prices between $2.32 and $2.56, although the average might dip a little. The year might end strong in December, with prices forecasted to move between $2.28 and $3.20, which could mean a 44.10% return if prices reach the higher end.

The recent regulatory approvals of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in North America have sparked significant interest and optimism among investors and analysts. Three major investment firms have secured regulatory approval for XRP ETFs, collectively managing over $32 billion in assets. This development indicates growing institutional confidence in XRP as a legitimate financial instrument. This could signal a broader shift toward mainstream adoption of XRP.

However, the institutional demand in the U.S. remains on hold due to legal uncertainties surrounding Ripple and its native token, XRP. Between 11 and 12 major U.S. institutions have filed for XRP ETFs, but none have been approved. The delay is largely due to the ongoing lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple Labs, which alleges unregistered securities offerings through XRP sales. Although Ripple scored a partial victory in July 2023 when Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security in itself, the case remains unresolved. Most recently, on June 26, 2025, Judge Torres rejected a proposed settlement agreement, leaving the legal status of XRP in limbo. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company would no longer pursue a counter-appeal, and the SEC is expected to drop its appeal as well, effectively allowing the case to close.

CryptoSensei, a prominent crypto analyst, believes that August could be a turning point. A favorable conclusion to the case would remove the biggest barrier holding back U.S.-based XRP ETFs. With institutional demand already building and precedents set in neighboring markets, a final resolution in the Ripple case could ignite the long-anticipated XRP rally. If the SEC steps out of the way, ETF approvals could follow swiftly, positioning XRP for a significant price explosion fueled by mainstream investment flows.

Another crypto analyst has shared a forecast, saying XRP price could reach $30 to $50 during the next major crypto market cycle. He based this prediction on institutional inflows, regulatory support, and real-world use cases. He also pointed to Ripple’s collaboration with the Saudi central bank in 2024, speculating that XRP could be used for oil settlement payments in the future. These developments have raised XRP ETF approval chances, which may be a key trigger for further price movement in the coming months.

According to the analyst's forecast, XRP has been in a stable phase, trading within a restricted price range, which could be nearing an end. This stability is seen as a precursor to a potential breakout, with some analysts suggesting that XRP is "coiling like a spring," ready for a face-melting move. Experts have noted that XRP has completed an eight-month consolidation phase, which could lead to a notable increase in price movements. The asset has held above its $1.90 all-time high close for over eight months, signaling strong bullish consolidation. This pattern suggests that buyers are active and may be preparing for the next price movement. The Elliott Wave model by CrediBULL Crypto refers to the upward move between $0.50 and $3.60 as Wave (i), with the recent sideways trend viewed as Wave (ii) that may be followed by a more forceful Wave (iii) impulse. The next leg is estimated to be between $8 and $12, with Wave (iv) potentially bringing XRP price to $32 by 2026.

The legal landscape for XRP has also seen significant developments. The SEC’s four-year lawsuit against Ripple is nearing its conclusion, with Ripple agreeing to drop its cross-appeal. This has reduced legal uncertainty and improved confidence in XRP’s outlook. Ripple has also applied for a national banking charter and a Federal Reserve master account, which, if approved, could support XRP’s integration with traditional finance. Additionally, Ripple’s plans to issue RLUSD, a stablecoin, and expand RippleNet form key parts of its growth strategy, potentially increasing XRP’s use in payment systems and cross-border transfers.