XRP News Today: XRP's Crucial Test: SEC Uncertainty vs. $2.20 Technical Support

XRP's price trajectory following a significant market crash has drawn attention from analysts and traders, who are closely monitoring key technical levels and regulatory developments. After a 42% flash crash to $1.15, XRP rebounded to $2.48, with whale accumulation of 1.04 billion tokens ($2.54 billion) signaling potential support for a recovery . Technical indicators, including lower highs relative to Bitcoin and bearish MACD trends, suggest ongoing weakness, with risks of a deeper sell-off to $2.00 if critical support zones fail XRP Price Prediction: Crash Risk Rises as 'Lower Highs' Signal Weakness^[1].

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci retracement analyses highlight a potential target range of $2.20–$2.50 as a key battleground. A 2025 study in the Journal of Financial Economics validates the reliability of Elliott Wave patterns in 68% of cases, lending statistical weight to the correction scenario XRP Price May Crash to $2.2, Analyst Predicts Citing Technical Trends^[2]. Meanwhile, Fibonacci levels align with historical support zones, with a 72% reversal probability observed in prior studies XRP Price May Crash to $2.2, Analyst Predicts Citing Technical Trends^[2].

Regulatory uncertainty remains a critical factor. Delays in U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on XRP ETFs have exacerbated short-term pressure, with a 2024 report noting average 15% declines after regulatory postponements XRP Price May Crash to $2.2, Analyst Predicts Citing Technical Trends^[2]. However, institutional interest persists, with pre-filed ETF applications and potential inflows of $3–$10 billion if approvals materialize in early 2025 XRP-USD Rebounds to $2.48 After $19B Flash Crash^[3]. Ripple's recent legal victories, including a partial win against the SEC, have also bolstered mid-term optimism How XRP Whales Are Trading After The Crypto Market Crash^[7].

Market structure analysis reveals a compression zone between $2.14 and $2.43, where a breakout could trigger a rally toward $3.03, the long-term ceiling. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.14 risks a retracement to $0.94–$0.60 How XRP Whales Are Trading After The Crypto Market Crash^[7]. On-chain data indicates stable exchange reserves, confirming the crash was driven by derivatives liquidations rather than spot selling .

Historical context adds nuance to the outlook. XRP has historically outperformed peers after deleveraging phases, with a 1,500% rally following a 2017 crash. October, while traditionally weak, often transitions into a strong Q4, with average gains of 51% since 2013 Is XRP Price Going to Recover in October?^[4]. If the SEC approves ETFs, XRP could target $3.10–$3.20 in 2025, with bullish scenarios extending to $4.50 XRP-USD Rebounds to $2.48 After $19B Flash Crash^[3].

Risks persist, however. U.S.-China trade tensions and macroeconomic instability could delay ETF approvals and prolong volatility. A $16 billion liquidation event in late October underscores the fragility of leveraged positions, with market makers expected to extend the bottoming process . Analysts caution that a sustained break below $2.20 could expose XRP to further declines, while a close above $2.80 would reinvigorate bullish momentum .