XRP News Today: XRP's Crucial $2.68 Support: Will Bears Win 20% Drop or Bulls Spark Rally?

XRP faces heightened bearish pressure as veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of a potential 20% drop to $2.22 if the key support level at $2.68743 fails. His analysis, based on a descending triangle pattern in the token's price chart, suggests that a weekly close below this threshold could trigger a significant correction. At current levels near $2.85, a 6% decline to breach the support would align with historical outcomes of similar technical formations, according to classic analysis by Edwards and Magee . Brandt's caution is compounded by on-chain data showing mid-level holders-wallets with 1 million to 10 million XRP-beginning to offload their positions after a year of accumulation. Santiment data reveals this group's share of the total supply rose from 6% in October 2024 to 10.76% in September 2025 before declining to 10% in early October 2025, signaling profit-taking or waning confidence .

Whale selling has further exacerbated downward pressure, with 440 million XRP-worth over $1.3 billion-moved to exchanges in the past 30 days. This distribution, tracked by Santiment and highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, adds to exchange reserves near nine-month highs, a metric often associated with increased sell pressure . CoinGlass data also notes large sell orders above $3 on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, with short positions opened between $2.90 and $2.96. These actions suggest institutional players are preparing for a potential breakdown below critical support levels.

Market sentiment metrics reinforce the bearish outlook. Santiment's FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) index for XRP has reached a six-month high, historically acting as a contrarian signal for rebounds when fear peaks. However, this pattern is not guaranteed, and the current environment remains dominated by caution. Google Trends data further underscores waning retail interest, with XRP search activity hitting a three-month low in late September, now below 25 points. This decline reflects reduced public engagement and suggests retail traders-often drivers of short-term rallies-are disengaging .

While Brandt's analysis focuses on the $2.68 support level, some analysts argue for alternative scenarios. CasiTrades notes that XRP has held near $3.00 for several days, forming a consolidation pattern that could lead to a breakout toward $4.00–$4.50 if bulls reclaim key resistance. Similarly, Ali Martinez posits a clean break above $3.15 could push the token toward $3.60. These bullish scenarios depend on XRP avoiding a breakdown below $2.68, which would validate the descending triangle's bearish trajectory . The token's market cap of $177 billion, currently below BNB's $178 billion, highlights how even minor price shifts could alter rankings in the volatile altcoin space.

The immediate focus remains on technical and behavioral indicators. A weekly close below $2.68 would confirm the bearish case, while a sustained rebound above $3.15 could invalidate the triangle and shift momentum to the upside. On-chain flows, whale activity, and broader crypto market dynamics-such as Bitcoin and Ethereum's performance-will also influence XRP's path. Regulatory uncertainty, including delays in XRP ETF approvals, continues to weigh on investor sentiment, with some whales rotating capital into other assets amid prolonged legal disputes .

[1] The Currency Analytics (https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/altcoins/peter-brandt-warns-of-potential-20-xrp-drop-amid-rising-bearish-signals-203627)

[2] BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/peter-brandt-predicts-xrp-price-drop/)

[3] Coingape (https://coingape.com/xrp-news-why-whales-sold-coins-month-despite-etf-launch-buzz/)

[4] CoinCentral (https://coincentral.com/xrp-price-peter-brandt-warns-of-20-drop-as-whales-dump-440-million-tokens/)

[5] The Coin Republic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/08/xrp-price-prediction-20-drop-if-2-68-support-fails-says-peter-brandt/)

[6] CoinGape (https://coingape.com/peter-brandt-lists-xrp-among-shorts-as-he-doubles-down-on-bearish-forecast/)