XRP News Today: XRP at Crossroads: SEC ETF Verdict Could Spark 20% Drop or Breakout to $4

XRP Price: Traders Divided as Market Veteran Warns of Sharp Decline

The XRP price remains a focal point of debate among traders and analysts, with conflicting signals emerging from technical indicators, institutional activity, and regulatory developments. As of October 2025, XRP trades near $2.85, oscillating within a $2.99–$3.05 range amid anticipation of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on multiple spot ETF applications by October 19–25 . The token's trajectory is further complicated by diverging views between bullish and bearish camps, with veteran trader Peter Brandt warning of a potential 20% decline to $2.22 if key support levels fail .

XRP's price action has been confined to a descending triangle pattern, with resistance at $3.04–$3.05 and support at $2.99. Whale activity has intensified, with over $300 million in token disposals reported as institutional desks reposition ahead of the Fed's October 29 rate decision . The $2.99 floor has held through multiple tests, but breaking above $3.05 could unlock a bullish continuation toward $3.10. Conversely, a close below $2.68 would validate a bearish breakdown, per Brandt's analysis, targeting $2.22 .

Institutional interest remains a critical variable. Over 1.5 billion XRP tokens transacted in recent sessions, driven by ETF speculation and a 96% implied probability of a Fed rate cut. Six major XRP ETF applications from Grayscale, Bitwise, and others are under review, with approvals potentially unlocking $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows . Analysts at Changelly project October price targets of $2.87–$3.25, aligning with historical "Uptober" patterns where Bitcoin and altcoins often rally .

While bearish sentiment dominates short-term outlooks, whale accumulation suggests underlying strength. Large holders-wallets with 10 million to 100 million XRP-added 310 million tokens in Q3 2025, pushing their total holdings to 8.11 billion . This contrasts with retail caution, as Santiment data show XRP's fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) metric at a six-month high, historically a contrarian buy signal . Meanwhile, 439 million XRP, valued at $1.2 billion, moved to cold storage in late September, indicating long-term positioning .

However, bearish on-chain metrics persist. Exchange reserves hit nine-month highs as 320 million XRP moved to trading platforms, and the Taker Buy Sell Ratio in futures markets hit its lowest level since November 2024 . These trends suggest selling pressure could intensify if the SEC delays ETF approvals, a scenario that would likely trigger a retest of $2.50–$2.00 .

Despite bearish warnings, some analysts argue XRP's consolidation near $3.00 is a prelude to a breakout. CasiTrades notes that the token has held the $3.00 level for days, forming a consolidation pattern that could precede a Wave 3 rally to $4–$4.50 under Elliott Wave Theory . Similarly, Ali Martinez identifies $3.15 as a pivotal level, with a breakout potentially driving prices to $3.60 .

Institutional infrastructure also supports a bullish case. Ripple's EVM-compatible sidechain and tokenized stablecoin RLUSD ($90 million in circulation) are expanding XRP's utility in DeFi and cross-border payments . The XRP Ledger processed 70 million monthly transactions in July 2025, with decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes rising 21% month-over-month .

The SEC's ETF decisions remain the most impactful catalyst. A favorable outcome could validate XRP's institutional appeal, akin to Bitcoin and Ethereum, while a rejection would likely extend the bearish trajectory. Current funding rates for XRP futures (0.07%) exceed Ethereum's (0.05%), signaling leveraged bullish positioning . However, at $177 billion market cap, XRP requires massive inflows to achieve material gains-unlike smaller presales, which offer higher risk-reward profiles .

For now, traders are divided between Brandt's bearish triangle and bullish consolidation patterns. A decisive move above $3.15 or below $2.68 will determine XRP's near-term direction, with October's outcome likely shaping its Q4 performance.

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[1] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/xrp-traders-eye-bullish-breakout-toward-usd3-10-here-s-why)

[2] Coinpedia (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/xrp-price-analysis-can-ripples-2025-upgrades-ignite-a-bull-run-to-10/)

[3] The Bit Journal (https://thebitjournal.com/xrp-price-prediction-for-october-and-november-2025/)

[4] BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/what-to-expect-from-xrp-in-october-2025/)

[5] CoinCentral (https://coincentral.com/xrp-price-prediction-october-2025-six-etf-rulings-could-spark-40-rally-as-deepsnitch-ai-presale-explodes/)

[6] Blockonomi (https://blockonomi.com/xrp-price-faces-risk-of-drop-to-2-2-amid-bearish-chart-pattern/)

[7] Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-brandt-just-made-xrp-064331364.html)

[8] Coingape (https://coingape.com/peter-brandt-lists-xrp-among-shorts-as-he-doubles-down-on-bearish-forecast/)

[9] The Coin Republic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/08/xrp-price-prediction-20-drop-if-2-68-support-fails-says-peter-brandt/)

[10] FX Leaders (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/08/xrp-price-warning-brandt-eyes-18-fall-to-2-20-if-2-68-support-breaks/)

[11] The Currency Analytics (https://thecurrencyanalytics.com/altcoins/xrp-undervalued-despite-fading-adoption-as-whales-accumulate-199488)

[12] Economic Times (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/xrp-price-prediction-xrp-whale-activity-shows-bullish-momentum-is-a-10-breakout-coming-soon/articleshow/122997983.cms)

[13] The Financial Analyst (https://thefinancialanalyst.net/2025/10/04/xrp-whale-activity-sparks-concerns-of-imminent-price-correction/)

[14] Analytics Insight (https://www.analyticsinsight.net/news/could-xrp-really-hit-10-as-whales-etfs-and-global-adoption-drive-volatility-in-2025)