XRP News Today: XRP Consolidates Near $2.00 Amid 95% ETF Approval Odds

ChatGPT o3’s AI model has analyzed 42 live indicators to forecast the price of XRP, which is currently trading at $2.0016 with an RSI of 34.43, approaching oversold territory. The analysis suggests that XRP is consolidating at this level, with potential for a relief bounce given the 95% odds of ETF approval and the resolution of the SEC settlement.

The technical analysis indicates that XRP is trading within a tight range of $1.9860 to $2.0390, with the RSI at 34.43 suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. The MACD indicators show bearish momentum, but the negative histogram suggests that momentum may be stabilizing. Moving averages create a challenging overhead resistance structure, with the 200-day EMA at $2.0946 representing the nearest major resistance level.

Historically, XRP’s performance in 2025 has been a systematic decline from January peaks near $3.10 following post-ETF speculation rallies. The current price levels represent a 47.39% decline from the January 2018 all-time high of $3.84, but still maintain substantial gains of 72,025% from the July 2014 all-time low of $0.002802.

Support levels are identified at $1.9860 and $1.9500 to $1.9800, while resistance levels are at $2.0390 and $2.0946. The key resistance zone spans $2.1500 to $2.2300, and major resistance lies within the $2.5000 to $2.7000 range.

The regulatory landscape for XRP has seen significant developments, with Bloomberg ETF analysts increasing the odds of XRP ETF approval to 95%. This is based on positive SEC engagement and the agency’s classification of XRP as a commodity rather than a security. Multiple major asset managers have filed XRP ETF applications, with final decision deadlines clustered around October 2025.

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin has also seen regulatory approvals in New York and Dubai, positioning it to compete in the regulated stablecoin market. The stablecoin’s enterprise-grade design addresses compliance requirements, expanding Ripple’s addressable market to regulated financial institutions.

The proposed settlement between Ripple and the SEC, which includes a $50 million penalty and a $125 million escrow release, awaits final court approval. This settlement removes a major regulatory overhang that has suppressed XRP price action since December 2020.

XRP maintains a market capitalization of $119.35 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $3.92 billion, with a volume-to-market cap ratio of 3.29%. The circulating supply stands at 58.93 billion XRP, representing 58.9% of the maximum supply. Market dominance remains robust at 3.82% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

Social sentiment for XRP is strong, with an AltRank of 141 and a Galaxy Score of 68, indicating positive sentiment momentum. Engagement metrics total 8.4 million interactions with 45.37K mentions and 7.58K creators contributing to discussions. Sentiment is 85% positive, reflecting community optimism despite recent price consolidation.

Institutional momentum for XRP is driven by real-world asset tokenization on the XRP Ledger, with Guggenheim Treasury Services issuing Digital Commercial Paper on the platform. Payment volume on the XRP Ledger surged 1,000% recently, indicating strong adoption momentum in cross-border payment use cases.

Ripple’s acquisition of Standard Custody & Trust Company and Hidden Road Partners strengthens its institutional infrastructure, positioning it to serve regulated financial institutions requiring compliance and custody services. Integrating RLUSD into existing payment rails creates network effects where institutional adoption of the stablecoin potentially drives XRP liquidity demand, establishing positive feedback loops for ecosystem growth.

Over the next 90 days, XRP may continue trading within the $1.95 to $2.25 range pending news about ETF approval and broader market direction. The base case scenario suggests range-bound consolidation with a 40% probability, while the bull case scenario of an ETF-driven breakout has a 35% probability. The bear case scenario of a regulatory setback correction has a 25% probability.

Investors should monitor the progress of ETF applications, RLUSD adoption metrics, legal settlement finalization, and broader altcoin market sentiment over the next 90 days. Support defense at $1.95 to $2.00 remains essential for maintaining bullish structure, while resistance clearing above $2.10 could indicate momentum expansion toward ETF-driven targets. Daily closes above the 200-day EMA at $2.0946 would confirm short-term trend reversal.