XRP News Today: XRP's 300% Gain Faces 90% Crash Risk as Profit-Taking Surges

Investors are increasingly dumping XRP as the risks of a market correction mount. Despite a notable surge in XRP's value, on-chain data reveals a less optimistic picture. Long-term holders are taking record profits, injecting significant selling pressure into the market. This discrepancy between visible market euphoria and underlying structural signals raises doubts about the sustainability of the rally. Several technical indicators suggest an increased risk of a market reversal, indicating a fragile balance in the XRP market.

XRP has tripled in value since November 2024, attracting both retail and institutional investors. However, behind this rise, early XRP holders are realizing massive profits, amounting to 68.8 million dollars per day. This behavior mirrors the 2017 peak, which was followed by a 90% crash. The market is currently in a phase of tension between massive profit-taking and hopes for continued bullish momentum.

Intense profit-taking behavior by historical XRP investors is highlighted by the fact that these holders, who accumulated crypto before the bullish rally of November 2024, are selling at a sustained pace. These high-gain holders are realizing an average of 68.8 million dollars in profits per day over the past seven days. These participants bought XRP at under 0.50 dollars and now benefit from gains exceeding 300%. This wave of crypto distribution is accelerating as XRP has tripled in value, indicating that many are choosing to cash in their profits amid the euphoria.

Several objective elements confirm the scale and potentially problematic nature of this dynamic. Nearly 70% of realized XRP capitalization was formed between late 2024 and early 2025, meaning the market is now dominated by new entrants. The most profitable investors are the ones selling the most, creating a concentration of outgoing flows in a minority of addresses. The current behavior of high-gain holders recalls that of 2017, when XRP peaked above 2.50 dollars before a 90% collapse. This configuration, known as an “unbalanced market with strongly winning positions in exit phase,” increases price vulnerability to sharp corrections should volatility return. These on-chain data suggest that the recent XRP rise has been built on a fragile foundation, dominated by holders inclined to profit-taking. If this situation continues, it could heavily weigh on market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Besides sales volumes, several technical metrics confirm increasing pressure on XRP’s price. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, which measures whether cryptos are sold at a gain or loss, reveals a concerning trend among holders who acquired their XRP between three and six months ago, that is, just after the start of the bullish rally. According to Glassnode data, this cohort sees its SOPR steadily decline, meaning these investors are starting to sell at a loss even as other segments stabilize their behavior. Realized price data by holder age provides additional insight. The average purchase price for holders 3–6 months old is estimated at 2.28 dollars, while for holders 6–12 months, it is around 1.35 dollars. Currently, XRP trades around 2.02 dollars. This means new entrants are near breakeven, while longer-term holders still have a safety margin of nearly 35% before reaching their profitability level. If the price continues to fall, this last tranche of investors could in turn trigger a wave of selling, exacerbating downward pressure.

In this context, XRP’s weekly chart shows a descending triangle pattern, typically associated with a trend reversal. If this pattern confirms, the price could plunge to the 1.35 to 1.60 dollar zone or even test a floor around 1.30 dollars. However, sustained recovery at the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA 50) could enable a rebound around 3 dollars. The crypto market thus remains suspended on an unstable balance, caught between massive selling pressure and a potential technical reaction.