XRP News Today: XRP's $3.115 Threshold Could Define Post-Black Swan Recovery

XRP's recent 56% plunge to $1.25-the steepest single-day drop in years-has sparked a contentious debate among analysts about its near-term trajectory. The token's dramatic collapse, triggered by President Donald Trump's 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports, wiped out $707 million in positions, with over $615 million in longs liquidated. Despite the chaos, some experts argue the sell-off could pave the way for XRP's most bullish weekly candle ever if it closes above $3.115 by Sunday.

The October 10 sell-off marked one of crypto's most volatile days on record, with global liquidations exceeding $19 billion and U.S. stocks losing $1.65 trillion in value. XRP's sharp decline and swift rebound-from $1.25 to $2.40 within hours-has drawn comparisons to its "trademark resilience," with long-term holders citing signs of institutional buying during the panic. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, who predicted the drop to $2.22, claimed profits after the correction, though critics argue his success was more luck than technical skill.

Patrick Riley, a prominent XRP analyst, has emerged as a key bullish voice. He contends that a close above $3.115 would mark the token's most significant weekly gain, even if the overall percentage rise appears modest. From its October 10 low, XRP has already doubled, and Riley emphasizes the symbolic importance of overcoming the $3 threshold. "If we close over $3.1150 by Sunday, it'll be the most bullish $XRP weekly candle in history," he tweeted.

The debate underscores broader macroeconomic uncertainties. While Trump's tariffs drove the initial crash, analysts like Riley argue XRP's recovery momentum remains intact. The token ended Q3 at $2.846, its highest quarterly close ever, reflecting a 27% gain from Q2 and reinforcing its historical tendency to outperform in Q4. On average, XRP surges 140% during the final quarter, with standout rallies including a 240% gain in Q4 2024 and a 1,064% spike in 2017.

However, risks persist. The crypto market remains fragile, with Bitcoin down 10% and altcoins like Solana and SUI suffering even sharper declines. XRP's current price of $2.46-a 12% drop in 24 hours-leaves it vulnerable to further volatility. Regulatory uncertainty also looms, as U.S. political dynamics could delay approval of an XRP spot ETF, a catalyst many analysts view as critical for sustained growth.

As the week concludes, market participants are fixating on key levels. A close above $3.115 would not only validate Riley's prediction but also signal a shift in sentiment following the "XRP Black Swan" event. Conversely, failure to hold above $3 could reignite bearish pressures, with some analysts warning of potential bull traps.

With Q4 historically favorable for XRP and institutional demand building, the coming days will test whether this week's turbulence marks a reset for a new rally-or a cautionary tale of macro-driven fragility.

Source: [1] XRP Crashes 56% As $700M Liquidated: What's Next? (https://coinedition.com/how-xrp-lost-half-its-value-and-still-bounced-back-within-hours/)

[2] Expert Says XRP Can Still Witness Most Bullish Weekly Candle in History (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/10/11/expert-says-xrp-can-still-witness-most-bullish-weekly-candle-in-history/)

[4] Why Is Crypto Down: Bitcoin (BTC) Down 10%, ETH, XRP, SOL in (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/10/bitcoin-crashes-below-usd110k-cryptos-in-freefall-on-further-trump-tariff-on-china)

[8] XRP Records Highest Quarterly Close in History, Here's ... (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/10/02/xrp-records-highest-quarterly-close-in-history-heres-what-it-means-for-price-action/)

[9] XRP Records Historic Quarterly Close as Bulls Eye $6.81 by Year-End (https://coincentral.com/xrp-records-historic-quarterly-close-as-bulls-eye-6-81-by-year-end/)

[11] XRP Price Today Tests $3 Resistance After Record Quarter (https://coinedition.com/xrp-price-today-tests-3-resistance-after-record-q3-2025/)