XRP News Today: XRP's 2017 Echo: Support Holds or Rally Fizzles?

XRP, the digital asset issued by Ripple, has drawn renewed attention as analysts draw parallels between its current price trajectory and the explosive 2017 bull run that saw the token surge over 10x. Recent data shows XRP trading at $2.10 as of November 26, up 1.76% in 24 hours, with volume surging 25.88% to reflect heightened market activity according to Blockonomi. Technical analysts highlight a historical pattern emerging, where XRP is consolidating in a base similar to the one formed in late 2016 to mid-2017, a period preceding its sharp breakout.

The 2017 surge, which propelled XRP from $0.005 to a peak of $0.61, was marked by a multi-phase consolidation period followed by a rapid upward move. Current market observers, including crypto analyst ChartNerd, argue that XRP is replicating this structure in 2025, with the cryptocurrency now in what could be described as "Phase 4" of its cycle. ChartNerd notes that the 2017 rally was preceded by a three-month cooldown period where XRP retested its 3-month 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) before a parabolic move. The same pattern is now unfolding, with XRP retesting its 3-month 20-EMA at $1.20. If the price holds above this level, ChartNerd projects a 10x rally, potentially pushing XRP toward $21.50, a target aligned with the 2017 trendline.

Market fundamentals also appear to support bullish sentiment. Ripple's stablecoin, RLUSD, has surged past $1 billion in market capitalization, a milestone analysts attribute to growing institutional adoption. Additionally, Abu Dhabi's ADGM has opened regulatory pathways for institutions to use RLUSD as collateral, further bolstering XRP's ecosystem. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETFs have driven increased liquidity into XRP, with derivatives positioning indicating aggressive long-biased bets. Open interest on platforms like Binance and OKX has risen, with long-short ratios exceeding 2.6 and 1.87, respectively, signaling strong buyer control.

However, risks remain. The 3-month 20-EMA at $1.20 acts as a critical invalidation point; a close below this level would negate the bullish case. Long-term holders have also raised concerns, with HODL Waves data showing increased selling from wallets holding XRP for over a year. Between November 23 and 25, long-term holders sold 84 million XRP, a 56% jump, while the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for this group neared 0.50-a threshold historically associated with market tops.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. XRP has rebounded above $2.20, reclaiming the 20 EMA and showing short-term strength. However, key resistance levels at $2.37 (50 EMA) and $2.52 (100/200 EMA) remain untested. A breakout above $2.69, the upper bound of a descending triangle, could trigger a move toward $3.23, aligning with Fibonacci extension targets.

Projections vary widely. CoinPedia estimates XRP could reach $26.50 by 2030, while ChartNerd and Egrag Crypto cite $27 as a potential all-time high. Conversely, if the downtrend persists, XRP faces a risk of revisiting $1.80 or even $1.81, a recent local bottom.

As the market watches for confirmation, the 2017 playbook remains a focal point. Whether XRP can replicate its historic surge will depend on maintaining structure above critical support levels and sustaining institutional adoption. For now, bulls hold a structural advantage, but the path to a 10x rally remains contingent on market conviction.