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Ripple (XRP) faces mounting pressure as analysts warn of a potential price collapse below the critical $2.72 support level, a threshold that could trigger a deeper sell-off. Historical price data from 2025 shows
trading at $2.97 as of October 7, down 0.93% in 24 hours, with the lowest exchange rate for the year hitting $1.79 on April 9 and a peak of $3.55 on July 21[1]. However, recent technical indicators suggest a bearish shift. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole highlighted that XRP has consistently formed "lower highs" since July, with the latest peak at $3.10 falling short of the previous high of $3.19[6]. This pattern, coupled with weakening buying pressure, raises concerns that XRP could breach the $2.65–$2.70 support zone, potentially leading to a drop toward $2.00[6].The risk is amplified by historical parallels. In 2017, XRP saw a 20x price surge followed by a 96% crash, a pattern some analysts now fear could repeat. Coinpedia's analysis notes that a Stochastic RSI (SRSI) cross on the monthly chart-a precursor to the 2017 rally-has reemerged, signaling a potential 90% crash if the trend reverses. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD histogram for XRP shows deepening bearish momentum, with bars extending below zero, reinforcing the likelihood of further declines[6].
Market dynamics also point to fragility. Despite a 50.48% gain in January 2025, XRP's performance has deteriorated, with February 2025 marking a 29.71% loss-the worst monthly drop of the year[1]. A recent 10.34% single-day crash on July 24, driven by mass liquidations and heavy selling on South Korean exchange Upbit, underscores the asset's vulnerability. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has added urgency to the narrative, warning of $2.1 billion in crypto scams in 2025, which could exacerbate panic selling during downturns.
Institutional demand and ETF speculation offer a counterbalance. Jake Claver of Coinpedia argues that upcoming XRP ETF approvals in October 2025 could create a "supply shock," with institutions needing to purchase XRP to back shares-a move that might push prices higher. However, this scenario hinges on XRP holders selling at elevated prices, a scenario unlikely unless the token surges to $10 or beyond[3]. Conversely, Vandell Aljarrah of BlackSwanCapitalist remains bullish, predicting a $20–$30 range for XRP by year-end 2025, even without major utility developments[2].
Investors now face a pivotal question: Is the current decline a correction in a long-term bullish trend or the start of a deeper bearish cycle? Technical analysts caution that breaking below $2.72 could invite further losses to $2.50, while others, like Aljarrah, view dips as buying opportunities. The outcome will depend on whether institutional demand and macroeconomic factors, such as ETF approvals and regulatory clarity, outweigh the fragility exposed by XRP's recent volatility[2][3].
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