XRP News Today: XRP's $2.72 Support: Bearish Breakdown or Bullish Rebound?

XRP's price has come under pressure following a significant sell-off of approximately 440 million tokens by large holders, pushing the asset toward the critical $2.72 support level. On-chain metrics indicate a waning in market optimism, with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio declining to ~2.2 and the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio surging to ~393. These readings suggest reduced profitability for holders and a valuation that outpaces transactional activity, signaling potential overvaluation and increased short-term volatility . The sell-off has intensified near-term downside risks, with analysts highlighting the importance of defending the $2.72 level to avoid a deeper correction to $2.39 .

The MVRV decline reflects lower unrealized gains across XRP holders, diminishing the margin for bullish conviction. Historically, similar MVRV/NVT constellations have preceded rebounds if accumulation resumes, but current on-chain flows show concentrated outflows from whale addresses, translating into liquidity stress and a defensive stance among traders . Meanwhile, the NVT spike to ~393 suggests that XRP's market capitalization has grown faster than its transactional utility, a classic indicator of stretched valuations. Analysts warn that such divergences often precede short-term corrections until demand re-emerges .

Price action remains pivotal around the $2.72 support zone, which has been repeatedly tested since August. If this level holds, a rebound toward $3.08 is possible, historically linked to consolidation near $2.80. However, a breakdown below $2.72 could accelerate a move to $2.39, as bearish technical patterns, including a descending triangle, gain momentum . Veteran trader Peter Brandt has emphasized the importance of a weekly close below $2.68, which would validate a bearish scenario targeting $2.22-a 20% drop from current levels .

On-chain data further underscores the bearish sentiment, with over 320 million XRP moving to exchanges in the past week, pushing reserves near nine-month highs . This inflow signals holders preparing to sell, compounding the pressure on the $2.72 support. Conversely, bulls argue that renewed accumulation from retail and mid-sized investors could drive a recovery. Historical patterns show that dips from similar MVRV/NVT setups have produced rebounds if buying interest resumes .

The market's next move hinges on volume and block-sized transfers confirming either a breakdown or a rebound. If XRP stabilizes above $2.72, a clean break above $3.15 could target $3.60, invalidating the bearish triangle and shifting focus to higher levels . Institutional interest, including a recent ETF filing by GraniteShares, adds a potential catalyst for liquidity and price recovery. However, without a surge in on-chain activity, the current overvaluation risks persist, with NVT and MVRV metrics suggesting caution .

[1] COINOTAG (https://en.coinotag.com/xrp-could-retest-2-72-support-after-440-million-whale-sell-off-as-nvt-spikes-mvrv-falls/)

[2] Phemex (https://phemex.com/news/article/whales-offload-440-million-xrp-sparking-market-concerns-25104)

[3] CoinCentral (https://coincentral.com/xrp-price-peter-brandt-warns-of-20-drop-as-whales-dump-440-million-tokens/)

[5] BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/xrp-overvalued-threatens-all-time-high/)

[9] The Market Periodical (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/10/09/xrp-price-could-retest-2-72-before-next-bullish-move-toward-5-target/)