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XRP, Ripple's native token, is at a critical juncture as its price hovers near the $2.35 support level, sparking debate among analysts about its potential for a rebound. The token has seen mixed signals in recent weeks, with on-chain activity, regulatory developments, and ETF speculation creating a complex landscape for investors.
The recent legal resolution between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a key catalyst for optimism. The settlement, finalized in late 2024, removed a major regulatory overhang, fueling accumulation and positioning
for its strongest run in years . However, the token's price has since retreated to $2.30, pressured by profit-taking from long-term holders. Glassnode data reveals that XRP traders who accumulated the token below $1 are now realizing gains at an accelerated pace, with daily realized profits jumping from $65 million to nearly $220 million since September . This "distribution into weakness" dynamic suggests fading near-term confidence, as sellers prioritize capital preservation over riding upward momentum.Despite the price pullback, XRP's fundamentals remain robust. Ripple's $500 million fundraise and strategic acquisitions are bolstering its product ecosystem, while the XRP Ledger (XRPL) continues to demonstrate strong utility. The ledger recently hit 100 million total ledgers and reported a 40% surge in active addresses over three days, underscoring growing adoption in cross-border settlements and decentralized applications
. Additionally, 21Shares' filing for a spot XRP ETF amendment has reignited speculation about potential inflows. Analysts estimate that an ETF approval could attract over $1 billion in capital, potentially boosting XRP's market cap to $1 trillion .Technical analysis highlights a fragile equilibrium. XRP is currently trading within a tight range between $2.00 support and $2.67 resistance, forming a consolidation pattern ahead of a potential breakout
. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.55 and 200-day EMA at $2.58 define a key technical ceiling. A sustained close above $2.67 could open the path toward $3.00–$3.20, while a breakdown below $2.30 risks a deeper correction toward $1.25 . The "death cross" signal—where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA—has raised bearish alarms, though some analysts note that retail inflows and stable exchange withdrawals suggest capital rotation rather than mass exits .Market sentiment is divided. While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in "extreme fear" territory at 24, XRP's liquidity profile holds up, with average daily turnover exceeding $4 billion
. Institutional interest has softened, but retail investors continue to accumulate near $2.00. Meanwhile, the Flare Network's use of XRP in its Core Vault for DeFi applications has expanded the token's utility, with 28 million XRP recently locked in time-escrow accounts to mint FXRP .Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be pivotal. A confirmed breakout above $2.67 with increased volume could validate bullish scenarios, while a failure to defend $2.30 may accelerate a slide toward $2.00. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing improving on-chain activity and regulatory clarity as tailwinds. However, volatility risks persist, with XRP's correlation to
(0.82) and its volatility beta (0.61) indicating it remains sensitive to broader market swings .
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