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XRP experienced significant price volatility and large-scale whale activity in early October 2025, with 2.23 billion
transacted over 96 hours, reflecting intensified market dynamics. Data from multiple on-chain analytics platforms revealed sustained outflows from large holders, with daily sales exceeding $50 million, exacerbating downward pressure on the token's price. The sell-off coincided with a drop below the $2.60 threshold, with institutional buyers defending the $2.55 support level amid heightened trading volumes.Key technical indicators highlighted a bearish bias as XRP failed to reclaim critical resistance zones at $2.65–$2.66. Volume spikes confirmed aggressive dip-buying near $2.55, but subsequent sell-offs pushed the price to a closing range of $2.55–$2.56. Analysts noted that the 200-day moving average at $2.63 remained a key benchmark, with a sustained break above $2.60 potentially resetting the trajectory for a test of $2.70. However, momentum indicators suggested bears maintained control, with thin liquidity near $3.30 posing risks for further volatility.

Regulatory developments added to the uncertainty, as delays in U.S. SEC approvals for XRP spot ETFs extended beyond the October 18 deadline. The government shutdown and stalled crypto legislation heightened institutional caution, with some analysts speculating that a sell-the-news event could occur if ETFs are approved. Meanwhile, Ripple's regulatory progress in the EU and Dubai's adoption of XRP for real estate tokenization provided short-term offsets. Dubai's selection of the XRP Ledger for its Prypco Mint platform-highlighted by crypto expert John Squire-emphasized the token's efficiency, scalability, and institutional readiness, contrasting with Bitcoin's energy-intensive model.
Whale activity remained a focal point, with transfers to Binance and other exchanges signaling distribution rather than short-term profit-taking. CryptoQuant data showed a 30-day average outflow of $50 million daily since mid-July, aligning with historical patterns preceding price corrections. Technical analysts like Peter Brandt warned of a potential 50% market cap decline by year-end if XRP failed to hold above $2.75, citing a descending triangle pattern with a projected target of $2.20. Conversely, bullish sentiment persisted around potential ETF approvals and Ripple's expanding cross-border payment network, which could drive adoption in high-cost corridors.
Market participants closely monitored leverage metrics, with open interest at $1.36 billion and funding rates indicating elevated short-term risk. The interplay between whale flows, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic factors-including trade tensions and interest rate expectations-will likely dictate XRP's near-term trajectory.
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