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XRP faces intense downward pressure as whale selling exceeds $50 million daily, according to Whale Flow data, with sustained outflows since early 2024[1]. This selling pressure coincides with growing anticipation for a U.S. SEC decision on a spot
ETF, potentially as early as October 18[1]. However, technical analysts caution that a breakdown below critical support levels could trigger further declines, despite ETF optimism[1].Whale activity remains a dominant factor. Over $50 million in XRP is being offloaded daily by large holders, contributing to a bearish sentiment that overshadows potential regulatory developments[1]. CryptoQuant data confirms sustained net outflows from whale wallets, reinforcing concerns about prolonged price weakness[1]. Peter Brandt, a prominent chart analyst, has labeled XRP a "short candidate" if it completes a descending triangle pattern, with a breakdown below key support levels potentially accelerating losses[1].
Market participants are closely monitoring price action around $2.99, a support level that has held despite increased whale distribution. Institutional flows surged on October 7, with over 1.5 billion tokens transacted as XRP traded between $2.97 and $3.05[2]. A consolidation phase followed a brief spike to $3.05, with resistance confirmed at $3.04–$3.05[2]. Traders are analyzing whether momentum can retake $3.03 to challenge this resistance, which could unlock targets toward $3.10[2].
Retail sentiment has turned sharply bearish, with Santiment reporting a bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio below 1.0 for two of the past three days[6]. This level of fear-driven negativity, last seen during Trump's tariff announcements in April, historically precedes market rebounds[6]. Conversely, extreme optimism in late September-when the bullish-to-bearish ratio reached 3.21-coincided with a price peak near $3.13 before a subsequent pullback[6].
Regulatory developments remain pivotal. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 99% probability to XRP ETF approval in 2025[1], while legal experts highlight ongoing hurdles for immediate approval[1]. A potential ETF launch could attract institutional demand, but analysts warn of a "sell-the-news" reaction if whales exploit the event to offload holdings[1].
Technical indicators and whale activity suggest a volatile near-term outlook. If XRP breaks above $3.05, it could target $3.10–$3.12, but a failure to hold above $2.99 risks a retest of $2.85–$2.90 support. Elliott Wave analysis posits that XRP may be entering Wave 3 of a larger uptrend, with a potential path to $3.65 and beyond if the $3.00 support holds.
As of October 7, XRP traded at $2.99, down 0.79% in 24 hours. The coming weeks will test whether market optimism around ETFs can counterbalance the sustained selling pressure from whales, with macroeconomic factors like the Fed's October 29 rate decision adding further uncertainty[2].

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