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XRP traders are entering a pivotal period as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to finalize decisions on multiple
spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications in October 2025. Six major issuers-Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree-are awaiting approval, with Grayscale's filing due on October 18. Franklin Templeton's ETF decision is scheduled for November 14. The SEC's recent clarification that XRP is not a security has bolstered market confidence, with analysts estimating a 99% probability of approval by year-end, up from 64.6% in August [1].The potential approval of these ETFs could trigger significant institutional inflows. Early launches, such as the REX-Osprey XRP ETF and Grayscale's Digital Large Cap ETF, reported $15 million and $22 million in first-day inflows, signaling strong demand for regulated XRP exposure [1]. If all seven ETFs receive simultaneous approval, trading could commence shortly after October 18, creating a surge in liquidity. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the SEC's new generic listing standards make approval "essentially 100%" likely, with only S-1 filings remaining for clearance [2].
Technical analysis highlights critical price levels for XRP. The token currently trades near $2.90, with resistance at $3.20–$3.50 and support at $2.70. A breakout above $3.20 could drive XRP toward $5, while a breakdown below $2.70 risks a decline to $2.50 or lower [2]. Institutional accumulation of 120 million XRP tokens over 72 hours further underscores bullish sentiment, with traders monitoring whether XRP can sustain above $2.90 to validate continuation toward $3.00 [4].
The entry of major financial firms like BlackRock and Vanguard into XRP ETFs could amplify market dynamics. BlackRock's dominance in
and ETFs positions it to attract substantial inflows if it launches an XRP Trust. Similarly, Vanguard's potential reversal on crypto ETFs could intensify competition and liquidity for XRP. Analysts estimate that $5–$8 billion in inflows could materialize within 30 days of approval, dwarfing Bitcoin's early ETF performance [3].Market scenarios remain split between bullish and bearish outcomes. A bullish case hinges on strong ETF inflows, regulatory milestones (e.g., Ripple's U.S. bank license), and corporate adoption of XRP for treasury or payment solutions. Conversely, delayed approvals, low inflows, or limited institutional participation could push XRP below $2.70, with $2.50 as the next key support level [1]. Ripple's partnerships with banks and stablecoin projects, alongside global XRP Ledger adoption in countries like Palau and Brazil, add utility and potential catalysts beyond ETFs [3].
Investors are advised to closely monitor ETF flows, technical levels, and regulatory developments as October approaches. The SEC's decisions could redefine XRP's market structure, offering a pathway to mainstream institutional adoption. However, volatility remains tied to macroeconomic factors, including Treasury yield movements and Federal Reserve policy, which influence risk appetite across asset classes [4].
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