XRP News Today: SEC's October Ruling: XRP's Make-or-Break Moment as Altcoin Season Looms

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a surge in mid-cap altcoins, with XRP, Stellar (XLM), and Tron (TRX) emerging as key players amid a broader industry rally. Regulatory clarity, technical upgrades, and shifting investor sentiment are fueling optimism, particularly for XRP, which faces pivotal regulatory decisions in October 2025. Meanwhile, XLM and TRX are gaining traction as investors rotate capital into altcoins, signaling the potential start of a new "altcoin season."

Ripple's XRP is at the center of a critical regulatory inflection point. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to rule on spot XRP ETF applications by late October, with Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares among the applicants. A green light could mirror Bitcoin's ETF-driven rally, amplifying XRP's smaller market cap and potentially pushing its price into double digits. Concurrently, Ripple's application for a national banking charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) could further legitimize the asset. Approval would enable Ripple to operate as a federally regulated trust bank, enhancing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.

Technical upgrades to the XRP Ledger (XRPL) also loom large. Ripple's Token Escrow and Multi-Purpose Token (MPT) amendments aim to expand XRPL's utility for tokenized assets and compliance-driven settlements. Additionally, an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) sidechain is expected to attract developers by enabling Ethereum-compatible smart contracts, positioning XRP as a bridge between institutional finance and decentralized ecosystems. Analysts note that partnerships with DBS Bank and Franklin Templeton already hint at early institutional traction.

The broader crypto market is showing signs of a shift toward altcoins. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has formed a bullish "Cup & Handle" pattern on weekly charts, suggesting a potential $4.37 trillion market cap if the trend continues. Bitcoin's dominance has dipped below 59%, indicating capital is flowing into mid-cap projects.

XRP has broken key resistance levels, trading above $3.05 as of September 2025. Technical indicators like the RSI (55) and MACD histogram turning positive signal continued upside potential. However, caution persists: a failure to hold $2.75 could trigger a pullback. Similarly, Stellar (XLM) and Tron (TRX) are drawing attention for their risk-adjusted returns. XLM's Sharpe Ratio (2.08) outperforms TRX's (0.95), while both face max drawdowns of nearly -96%. XLM's current price of $0.3186 and TRX's $0.3114 reflect divergent short-term trajectories, with XLM showing stronger year-to-date gains.

Despite the bullish momentum, risks remain. The SEC could reject XRP ETFs, and Ripple's banking license application faces rigorous scrutiny. Macroeconomic factors, including global tariffs and fiscal tightening, have contributed to a 41% decline in the altcoin market cap since December 2024. Coinbase warns of a potential "crypto winter," though it forecasts a recovery by mid-2025 if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

For XRP, the path forward hinges on regulatory outcomes and institutional adoption. A successful October could catalyze a multi-year rally, while setbacks may prolong uncertainty. In the broader market, the interplay between macroeconomic shifts and crypto's inherent volatility will determine whether this altcoin season rivals the 2021 boom.

[1] XRP Price To Hit $10 In October? - Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/09/11/xrp-price-to-hit-10-in-october/)

[2] XRP Price Analysis: Can Ripple's 2025 Upgrades Ignite ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/xrp-price-analysis-can-ripples-2025-upgrades-ignite-a-bull-run-to-10/)

[3] XRP Price Prediction: Indicators Signal Room for Upside (https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2025/09/12/xrp-price-prediction-indicators-signal-room-for-upside/)

[6] TRX-USD vs. XLM-USD - Crypto Comparison Tool | PortfoliosLab (https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/TRX-USD/XLM-USD)

[10] Coinbase Reports 41% Drop in Altcoin Market, Predicts Potential ... (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/coinbase-reports-41percent-drop-in-altcoin-market-predicts-potential-crypto-rebound-by-q3-2025)

[12] Altcoin Season 2025 Will Be Bigger Than 2021 – Here's Why (https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:0cd4eb827094b:0-altcoin-season-2025-will-be-bigger-than-2021-here-s-why/)