XRP News Today: SEC's October ETF Ruling Could Trigger XRP Surge Amid Supply Constraints

XRP's potential price surge in October 2025 hinges on regulatory developments and market dynamics, though foundational support remains contested. Analysts highlight the SEC's impending decisions on multiple spot XRP ETF applications as a pivotal catalyst. Six ETFs, including proposals from Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, are set for rulings between October 18 and October 25. If approved, these funds could inject $5–$8 billion into XRP markets within 30 days, dwarfing Bitcoin's initial ETF inflows. However, such optimism contrasts with the token's limited circulating supply, as institutional holdings and exchange inventories have dwindled. Coinbase's XRP inventory, for instance, has fallen nearly 90% to ~100 million tokens, raising concerns about liquidity constraintsCoinPedia, ^[1].

The supply shock scenario is further amplified by institutional lockups and corporate treasury allocations. Projects like Axelar Network and Flare Networks plan to allocate 13% of XRP's circulating supply (~8 billion tokens) to long-term treasuries, leaving only ~21 million tokens for public trading. This scarcity could drive prices upward if demand from ETFs and institutional buyers outpaces available supplyFinancemagnates.com, ^[2]. Analysts like Jake Claver argue that XRP's limited retail trading activity-holders typically retain tokens for extended periods-means institutions may need to pay premiums to secure assets, potentially pushing prices to $10 or higherForbes, ^[3].

Ripple's broader ecosystem developments, including partnerships with banks and central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilots, add speculative momentum. Countries like Palau and Brazil are testing XRP for cross-border payments, while corporate adoption of the XRP Ledger for treasury management grows. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has projected XRP capturing 14% of SWIFT's global liquidity within five years, citing speed and cost advantages over traditional systemsCoinCentral, ^[4]. Additionally, the U.S. government's potential inclusion of XRP in a digital asset reserve-announced by President Trump-could bolster institutional confidenceBlockNews, ^[5].

Technical analysis aligns with these catalysts. XRP is consolidating within a descending wedge pattern, with a critical resistance level at $3.00. A breakout above this threshold could trigger a rally toward $3.62, mirroring its July 2025 surge. Fibonacci extensions and volume metrics suggest a 35% upside potential by month-end, contingent on SEC approvalsCCN, ^[6]. However, the token faces risks if ETF applications are rejected or if regulatory clarity fails to materialize. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is also set to rule on Ripple's national banking charter by late October, which could validate its institutional legitimacyYahoo Finance, ^[7].

Despite bullish narratives, skeptics caution against overreliance on speculative catalysts. The SEC's cautious stance on altcoin ETFs and XRP's legal history-marked by a protracted lawsuit with the regulator-introduce uncertainty. Historical trends also show October as a mixed month for XRP, averaging -4.5% returns over the past decadeAnalyticsInsight, ^[8]. While some analysts project $10+ prices under ideal conditions, achieving such levels would require XRP's market cap to surpass $10 trillion-a scenario deemed highly speculative without broader macroeconomic shifts.

In summary, October 2025 presents a critical inflection point for XRP, with ETF approvals and institutional adoption potentially unlocking significant upside. However, the token's future remains contingent on regulatory outcomes, supply dynamics, and sustained demand. Investors are advised to balance optimism with caution, given the sector's inherent volatility and the absence of universal consensus on XRP's long-term utility.