XRP News Today: SEC's October ETF Ruling May Drive XRP to $10 Amid Shrinking Supply

XRP's price trajectory has gained renewed momentum amid growing anticipation for U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications in October 2025. Analysts and institutional observers highlight the potential for a "supply shock" in the XRP market, driven by historically low token availability on exchanges. For instance, Coinbase's XRP inventory has declined nearly 90% in recent months, leaving only approximately 100 million tokens on the platform. This scarcity, combined with expectations of institutional demand from ETFs, could force holders to sell at higher prices, potentially pushing XRP toward $4 by September and $5 by Octobertitle1^[1].

The resolution of the SEC's five-year lawsuit against Ripple in August 2025 has provided critical regulatory clarity, de-risking XRP as a security in secondary-market transactions. This development has spurred a surge in institutional interest, with the first U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF, REX-Osprey XRPR, recording $37.7 million in first-day trading volume. Analysts estimate that inflows of $5–$11 billion in the first year post-ETF approval could drive XRP to $10–$16 by December 2025, according to projections from Google Gemini AItitle2^[2]. Such a scenario hinges on sustained institutional participation and a broader market appetite for regulated crypto exposure.

Technical analysis reinforces bullish sentiment, with XRP currently trading near $2.88 and consolidating within a rising channel. Key resistance levels are identified at $2.95–$3.02, with a breakout potentially targeting $3.60–$3.62 by Octobertitle5^[5]. However, short-term volatility remains a concern, as recent selloffs-such as a 5% drop following the REX-Osprey ETF launch-highlight the fragility of market sentiment. Whale activity, including the accumulation of 120 million XRP in three days, suggests large players are positioning for a potential price surge ahead of October's ETF decisionstitle5^[5].

The confluence of regulatory and technical catalysts has intensified retail and institutional FOMO. Jake Claver, a crypto analyst, notes that XRP's long-term holders-many of whom purchased between $0.20 and $3-may require prices of $10 or higher to part with their tokens. This dynamic, combined with ETF-driven demand, could create a self-reinforcing cycle of price appreciation. Additionally, Ripple's partnerships with stablecoin projects and central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilots add utility to the XRP Ledger, further bolstering its case as a bridge currency for global paymentstitle1^[1].

Key dates in October 2025 will shape XRP's near-term outlook. The SEC is scheduled to rule on six spot XRP ETF applications between October 18–25, including proposals from Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares. A favorable outcome is priced in by prediction markets, with over 99% odds of approvaltitle5^[5]. Meanwhile, Ripple's pursuit of a U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) banking license, expected by late 2025 or early 2026, could further integrate XRP into traditional finance. Investors are advised to monitor support levels at $2.75 and $2.80, as well as resistance at $3.00 and $3.15, to gauge the asset's trajectorytitle5^[5].