XRP News Today: SEC ETF Rulings to Determine XRP's $3.62 Surge or $2.00 Slide

XRP's price trajectory in October and November 2025 is drawing significant attention as multiple catalysts align to influence its performance. Key among these are the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s decisions on six spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, expected between October 18 and October 25, and historical seasonal patterns that have historically favored XRP during the October-December quarter. Analysts and institutional investors are closely monitoring technical levels and market sentiment to gauge potential outcomes.

Technical analysis suggests XRP faces critical junctures. If the token breaks above $2.81, it could trigger a 30% rally to $3.62, according to aggregated models XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1]. However, the price has shown volatility, with a recent 41% intraday collapse to $1.64 before rebounding to $2.49 XRP Price Analysis: Ripple Reverses 40% Losses After Its^[2]. Support at $2.40–$2.45 has been reinforced by institutional accumulation, while resistance at $3.05 remains pivotal for a sustained upward move XRP Price: Why October Will Be the Most Bullish Month of 2025^[3]. Peter Brandt, a noted chartist, revised his stance to bullish, citing historical triangle patterns and a potential breakout from a descending channel Peter Brandt Flips Bullish on XRP After Major Market Shift^[4].

The SEC's ETF rulings are seen as a major catalyst. If approved, these products could unlock billions in institutional capital, with analyst projections estimating $4 billion–$8 billion in first-year inflows XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1]. Grayscale's XRP ETF decision on October 18 is particularly watched, as it could set a precedent for other filings. Ripple's application for a U.S. bank charter also adds regulatory clarity, potentially enhancing institutional adoption XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1].

Seasonal trends further bolster optimism. XRP has historically averaged 51% gains during the October-December quarter, with Q4 2024 delivering a 240% rally XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1]. October, dubbed "Uptober," has historically been bullish for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin averaging +27% returns in the month since 2013 XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1]. However, XRP's October performance has been mixed, averaging -4.6% returns since 2013, though the quarter remains its strongest XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1].

Price forecasts vary across models. Changelly projects a $2.87–$3.25 range for October, while technical indicators suggest a potential $3.30–$3.62 target if conditions align XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1]. Expert consensus leans toward a $3.00–$3.50 range by month-end. For November, outcomes depend on October's results: a successful ETF approval could push XRP toward $4.00, while consolidation or pullbacks are possible if macroeconomic pressures or regulatory delays emerge XRP Price Prediction for October and November 2025^[1].

Risks remain, including macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions. A 100% tariff announcement by President Donald Trump triggered a $19 billion liquidation wave across crypto markets, with XRP losing 17.15% in a single day . Retail participation has waned, with active XRP addresses dropping 76% since peak levels , raising concerns about sustained momentum.

Institutional positioning indicates growing confidence. Open interest in XRP futures surged to $8.95 billion, near yearly highs, as traders brace for volatility XRP’s $2.40 Support at Risk Amid Bitcoin’s Comeback^[6]. Derivatives data also show increased long positions, with spot inflows resuming after a $300 million exodus XRP’s $2.40 Support at Risk Amid Bitcoin’s Comeback^[6].

XRP's path hinges on navigating these dynamics. A sustained breakout above $3.00 could validate a bullish trend toward $3.65–$4.00, while a failure to hold key support levels risks a retreat to $2.50–$2.00 XRP Price Analysis: Ripple Reverses 40% Losses After Its^[2]. The coming weeks will be pivotal as market participants await regulatory clarity, technical developments, and broader macroeconomic signals.