XRP News Today: SEC's ETF Decision Could Make or Break XRP's Institutional Future

XRP, the digital asset associated with Ripple, is under close scrutiny as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaches a decision on multiple XRP-related exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications by October 2025. Analysts and market participants are divided, with some predicting a surge in institutional interest and others warning of potential challenges in XRP’s adoption. The outcome of this regulatory review could significantly influence XRP’s price trajectory, with predictions pointing toward a potential 60% increase, similar to Bitcoin’s performance after its spot ETF approval in 2024.

According to Nate Geraci of the ETF Institute and the ETF Store, demand for spot XRP ETFs has been underestimated. Analysts, including James Seyffart from Bloomberg ETF, have placed a 95% probability on the approval of XRP ETFs in 2025, while traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket have increased the chances of approval to 87% within the last 24 hours. These figures underscore growing confidence in the likelihood of a favorable regulatory decision. Geraci also highlighted that XRP ETFs could attract up to $5 billion in inflows within their first month, with Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg forecasting a similar amount, albeit on a smaller scale compared to Bitcoin’s $2 billion inflow within the first three days of its ETF launch.

Market dynamics suggest that XRP could attract institutional investors due to its use cases in cross-border payments and financial services. Ripple’s ongoing expansion of its payments network and the potential approval of an XRP ETF provide long-term optimism for the token. However, some analysts remain skeptical, particularly regarding the token’s narrative strength relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum. AdrianoFeria.eth, a crypto analyst on X, warned that an XRP ETF could mark the beginning of the end for the token if it fails to attract meaningful institutional interest. This view reflects broader concerns about XRP’s positioning in the market compared to its peers.

Technical indicators also highlight the uncertainty in XRP’s near-term price direction. XRP has been trading in a descending triangle pattern with $2.7 acting as a key support level. A breakout above $3 is seen as critical to shifting market sentiment toward a bullish outlook, with potential price targets set at $3.40 and $3.80. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.7 could trigger a wave of selling, with further support levels at $2.50 and $2.21. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and volume data indicate that sellers currently have the upper hand, suggesting continued pressure on the price unless significant buying momentum emerges.

Looking ahead, the approval of XRP ETFs is expected to be a major catalyst for the token’s price. If the SEC approves the applications in October, XRP could see a surge in demand from both retail and institutional investors. JPMorgan analysts earlier this year projected up to $8 billion in inflows to XRP ETFs within the first year of trading, drawing parallels with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. However, the market’s efficiency means that much of this anticipation may already be priced in, potentially leading to a muted initial reaction. Additionally, broader macroeconomic conditions, including U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty, could limit the extent of any rally.

The long-term prospects for XRP remain tied to the resolution of the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit and the token’s adoption in real-world financial services. Positive developments in these areas could reinforce the bullish outlook, especially if the token gains a stronger foothold in institutional investment products. Traders will be closely watching the price action around $2.7 and $3, with a confirmed breakout likely to attract fresh capital and shift the momentum in favor of bulls.

Source: [1] XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but 'people... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-approval-seen-unlock-121250497.html) [2] China's DeepSeek Predicts XRP, Ethereum, Pi Prices by... (https://cryptonews.com/news/chinas-deepseek-ai-predicts-the-price-of-xrp-ethereum-and-pi-coin-by-the-end-of-2025/) [3] XRP Price Prediction: XRP Poised for Apex Breakout—Will... (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/xrp-price-prediction-xrp-poised-for-apex-breakout-will-the-next-move-send-it-to-5) [4] Crypto analyst warns XRP ETF will mark 'beginning of the end' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-analyst-warns-xrp-etf-193131671.html) [5] Prediction: XRP Could See Its Price Rising Again by Oct. 18 (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/05/prediction-xrp-could-see-its-price-rising-again-by/)